Records exceeded or very close. After a lull at the beginning of August, fuel prices have started to rise again in recent weeks. The average price of a liter of unleaded 98 (SP98) thus reached 2.24 euros on Wednesday September 16, according to government data. A record since the peak of June 2022, a few months after the start of the war in Ukraine. The liter of SP95-E10 stands at 2.15 euros on average, four cents more than its June 2022 record. As for diesel, it peaks at nearly 2.35 euros per liter, three cents from its April record.
Faced with these increases, protest movements are multiplying, with the government even worrying about a return of "yellow vests". Franceinfo takes stock of the reasons for this new surge, while the Minister for Energy, Maud Bregeon, assured Tuesday that there was "no risk of shortage".
The resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran
At more than 108 dollars on Wednesday, the price of a barrel of crude had not been this high since May, just before a lull in the Middle East and the signing of a memorandum of understanding in June between Iran and the United States to end the conflict. But hopes for a diplomatic resolution seem to have vanished since August 30, and the resumption of strikes between the two countries.
The Revolutionary Guards, the powerful armed force of the Iranian regime, claimed on September 10 to have targeted an American marine drone in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which oil can no longer transit since the start of the war, causing a contraction in supply. The day before, Tehran had targeted around twenty ships in response to American strikes. Before the war, a fifth of the world's hydrocarbons took this route.
“Each day that passes when the conflict is not resolved, the balance between supply and demand for oil becomes tighter, and prices rise,” Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po and energy expert, reminds franceinfo. "The market is reassessing two elements at the same time. The first is the immediate escalation. The second, and increasingly important, is the duration of the geopolitical risk", also comments to AFP Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management, to explain the rise in prices.
Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis
The markets are also worried about the growing hostilities between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Islamist fighters have inflicted significant setbacks on Yemeni government forces and their Saudi ally in recent days, targeting the kingdom's oil infrastructure and strengthening their hold on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after a lightning offensive. This maritime passage connects Europe to Asia via the Red Sea and had become particularly strategic for the Saudis in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
After attacks attributed to drones coming from Iraq, the Saudi authorities also announced on September 11 the temporary closure of the East-West oil pipeline, a crucial crude export route to circumvent the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Saudi oil pipeline can transport around seven million barrels per day from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and therefore constitutes the most important route around the Strait of Hormuz,” explains Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management, to AFP. "It is not clear how serious the possible damage is", but the recent escalation poses additional risks to the oil market, estimate ING analysts, cited by AFP. “Between the shutdown of the oil pipeline and the control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis, the markets, which have been rather optimistic recently, are saying that a solution will not be found quickly,” summarizes Thierry Bros, who predicts that prices will continue to increase.
Oman also announced the postponement of a meeting scheduled for Monday between Iran and Gulf countries on the future of the Strait of Hormuz. “This delay further removes any prospect of de-escalation” in the region, underline ING experts. According to Iran, this meeting was postponed at the request of Saudi Arabia, which cited the situation in Yemen.
Ukrainian bombing of Russian refineries
If it is not the main driving force, the continuation of the war between Ukraine and Russia also contributes to fueling the surge in fuel prices. "In recent months, the Ukrainians have understood that they have an interesting weapon against Russia by attacking its refineries, which makes it possible to limit exports of Russian petroleum products" and to dry up Moscow's financial windfall, points out Thierry Bros.
