CDU continues to fall and is almost on a par with the Left - AfD more than twice as strong

Prime Minister Voigt's CDU is coming under increasing pressure in Thuringia. As can be seen from a new “Insa” survey commissioned by the “Thüringer Allgemeine”, the “Ostthüringer Zeitung” and the “Thüringische Landeszeitung”, Björn Höcke's AfD still achieved 40 percent in Thuringia.

The CDU, on the other hand, lost four percentage points compared to the last survey in July and only got 18 percent. This means their lead over the left shrinks to a single percentage point. The party now reaches 17 percent.

In the state elections in September 2024, the CDU achieved 23.6 percent and was therefore more than ten percentage points ahead of the Left, which had 13.1 percent at the time. The current figures show how much the balance of power in the Free State has shifted since then.

The other results are also unlikely to be very encouraging for the state government. The SPD has eight percent, the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has five percent. With four percent, the Greens would still miss out on entering the state parliament. The spin-off “Thuringia Fair”, co-founded by Deputy Prime Minister Katja Wolf, only achieved two percent.

The survey results at a glance:

AfD: 40 percent (+/-) CDU: 18 percent (-4) Left: 17 percent (+1) SPD: 8 percent (+2) BSW: 5 percent (-2) Greens: 4 percent (+/-) Other: 8 percent (including “Thuringia fair”)

The government's difficult situation becomes particularly clear when looking at the share of votes that the three parties would achieve together: the CDU, SPD and "Thuringia Fair" together only get 28 percent. The AfD alone is twelve percentage points ahead of the three government parties.

There is also a significant imbalance in the possible distribution of seats. According to calculations based on the survey, the AfD could achieve around 45 percent of the mandates. However, it would not be enough for an absolute majority. The government parties together would have around 30 percent of the seats. For Prime Minister Voigt, who has governed Thuringia since December 2024 in a coalition of the CDU, BSW and SPD, the result is a clear warning signal.

For the survey, Insa interviewed 1,000 people in Thuringia between October 20th and 27th.