Census Schedule Sets Timeline for Five State Assembly Elections

The decision to advance the Census exercise in four poll-bound states — Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa — while deferring the first phase in Manipur has effectively cemented the timeline for the next round of assembly elections in all five states to February-March next year, according to a Times of India report.

Of the five states, Manipur’s assembly term ends first, on March 13, 2027. The terms of the Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand assemblies expire on March 14, March 16 and March 28, respectively, while the Uttar Pradesh assembly will complete its term only on May 22.

The five states had voted together in the 2022 assembly elections, although the first sitting of the Uttar Pradesh assembly was held on May 22, 2022.

With the 2027 elections in the five states also expected to be held simultaneously, the Election Commission is likely to follow the conventional practice of completing the polls before the expiry of the assembly with the earliest end of term — Manipur, on March 13.

This would mean that Uttar Pradesh could go to the polls almost two months before the expiry of its assembly term. The timing would be in line with the pattern followed in the last three elections. The Election Commission's constitutional mandate allows it to hold elections to a state assembly anytime within six months before the expiry of the House's term.

Given Uttar Pradesh's size and population, the state is almost certain to have multi-phase polling. However, the number of phases could be fewer, following the precedent set by the Election Commission in Bihar and West Bengal. Polling in Uttar Pradesh could begin in February or even in early March if the Election Commission decides to restrict the election to two phases, as it did in Bihar. The poll schedule may be announced in January 2027.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has already been completed in three of the five poll-bound states and is under way in the remaining two. As a result, the Election Commission is unlikely to undertake an annual summary revision in these states before announcing the assembly elections.

Following the completion of the SIR, the electorate in Uttar Pradesh stood at 13.4 crore, marking a decline of 13.2%. Goa's electorate stood at 10.6 lakh, down 10.2%, while Manipur had 19.3 lakh voters, a fall of 7.6%. The final electoral rolls for Punjab and Uttarakhand are scheduled to be published over the next couple of months.

The Centre on Sunday notified its decision to advance the population enumeration phase of Census 2027 in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, the non-snow-bound areas of Uttarakhand and Goa to the period between December 1, 2026, and January 4, 2027, with January 5 as the reference date. It also notified the deferment of the houselisting phase of the Census in Manipur.

Advancing the population enumeration phase in the four other poll-bound states will help avoid the logistical challenges that could have arisen from an overlap between the usual Census timeline and the assembly elections. Both exercises depend on the same pool of government employees, largely teachers, for their conduct.

Conventionally, the second phase of the Census is conducted across the country in February, with March 1 serving as the reference date.