There is a reason behind every natural disaster. Many times man creates those reasons himself. Sometimes unknowingly and sometimes knowingly.
The devastating floods that have engulfed settlements near Nepal's border with China have provided a dire reminder of the increasing risks facing people in the Himalayas.
Scientists say that this mountain range is in a very critical condition due to climate change.
The cause of the devastating floods in Nepal cannot be determined so quickly, but scientists said that satellite images before and after the disaster indicate that a large section of rock in the north of Langtang Lirung Mountain near Tibet collapsed, causing a huge part of the glacier above it to break down.
The force of the debris of millions of cubic meters of falling rocks and ice was initially mistaken for an earthquake. According to some estimates, it generated so much energy that the glacier ice melted and a massive wall of rocks, mud and water flowed dozens of miles down into Nepal through the Bhotekoshi Valley.
The disaster has highlighted the dangers posed by glaciers and mountain slopes, which are increasingly affected by climate change. Some experts also worry that China's massive hydropower projects could further increase the risk of disaster.
Brahma Chellaney is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy, Berlin. Chellaney is the author of nine books, including "Water: Asia's New Battleground".
Chellani says the massive flash floods that devastated Nepal's Trishuli and Bhotekoshi valleys should not be seen as just another tragedy in the Himalayas. “This incident started as a natural disaster,” Chellani wrote in Nikkei Asia. A huge avalanche of snow and rocks cut off a section of the glacier at an altitude of 5,200 meters near the border with Tibet. But after hitting the rapidly changing mountainous landscape upstream, it turned into a series of devastating events.'' According to Chellani, the main question is why the flood became so destructive downstream. "The answer lies in the combined effect of China's upstream infrastructure projects, altered river routes, and lack of cross-border cooperation," writes Chellaney. None of these caused the glacier's collapse, but it is possible that all of them together may have increased its impact. Chellani believes, "In the last decade, China's expansion of embankments, border facilities, highways and other construction has narrowed some parts of the upper valley. Construction activities have become concentrated on the banks of the river. Under normal circumstances such projects facilitate trade and transportation. But in case of excessive floods, these projects can become a cause of risk.
Geomorphologist Kristen Cook of the University of Grenoble said analysis of recent satellite images indicated that a large section of rock beneath the glacier at Langtang Lirung had collapsed. Cook told the British newspaper Financial Times that rockslides are not unusual in the high Himalayas, but "what was unusual about this event, and what made it such a disaster, was that it was so massive." Simon Cook, an environmental scientist at Britain's Dundee University, told the FT: "The bottom of the last hanging part of the glacier appears to have broken off and fallen into the valley about 1,300 meters below." Simon Allen, a disaster risk researcher at the University of Zurich, told the FT that satellite images showed "a large chunk of rock and ice broke off" and that it came down as an "ice-rock avalanche", causing devastating floods. Allen said researchers at the Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains Working Group had not yet determined how large the fall was. But based on seismic signals, they estimated that 5 to 100 million cubic meters of debris might have hit the ground. "It's huge," he said. At least in this region, we have not seen an event of this magnitude." The U.S. Geological Survey initially reported a 4.4-magnitude earthquake near the border between Nepal and China, but later revised it down to a 5.2-magnitude landslide. The agency said the seismic energy was "generated by the collapse of the glacier and the flow of debris."
Experts have been raising questions about the plan to build the world's largest hydroelectric project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in China. After entering India, this river is known as Brahmaputra. China has been dismissive of concerns raised about the mega-dam's environmental impact or potential impact on water supplies for people living downstream. Experts and officials have expressed concern that the new dam could give China the power to control or divert the Yarlung Tsangpo River. The Lowy Institute, an Australia-based think tank, said in a report published in 2020 that "control of these rivers in the Tibetan Plateau effectively gives China control over India's economy." In an interview with news agency PTI last year, Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu had expressed concern that the Siang and Brahmaputra rivers "may dry up to a large extent" after the dam is completed. This project is expected to release a large amount of debris and will require drilling through complex geological formations. “Man-made infrastructure development can also contribute to seismic risks,” Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told the FT. Panda said that the mega-dam project has the potential to increase seismic risks and may also increase the possibility of landslides. Panda said, "This is certainly a project that China should review very carefully and there needs to be much greater transparency, information sharing and dialogue with Himalayan countries, especially India, Nepal and other countries. Hopefully this disaster will create the necessary awareness in China about the importance of discussing these issues more openly with India and other downstream riparian countries."
Chellani believes that the Himalayas are becoming more dangerous due to human activities. "Diversion dams, embankments, and other upstream river diversions created local blockages in narrow Himalayan valleys," they wrote in Nikkei Asia. "When the avalanche-induced surge hit these blockages, the temporary accumulation and flow of water over them likely created second waves of flooding, causing rapid rise in river levels downstream."
The risk of earthquake is highest in the Himalayan region. This region is still under heavy tectonic pressure due to the collision of the Indian and Eurasian continental plates, making its terrain extremely unstable. The Chinese government considers Tibet and the areas bordering its Himalayan border as important for its national and energy security. American broadcaster CNN wrote in one of its reports, "China's goal is to turn this region into a major center of high-altitude green energy." "We're looking at '100-year floods' every five to 10 years," Austin Lord, senior fellow in the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, told CNN. “Climate-related risks are changing faster than we can change our protective boundaries.” “If we don't start working together on these issues with so much uncertainty, there will be no progress and we will be hit hard again next time,” he said.
In recent years, China's advances in dam building technology, the race to transform power systems through clean energy and move away from coal, as well as the ongoing border dispute between China and India in high altitude areas have accelerated change in the region. "The perception of the mountains has changed," Ruth Gamble, a historian of Tibet's environment, culture and climate at La Trobe University in Australia, told CNN. Earlier these were seen as backward areas or places of potential ethnic instability. Now they are being seen as a resource."
