After receiving the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, President Trump's agenda is not devoid of issues up for discussion, including artificial intelligence, and the possibility of the two sides reaching agreements regarding the pace of its development. The escalating debate over the risks of artificial intelligence has captured the attention of Silicon Valley, Washington, and, in recent days, in the corridors of the United Nations, to the point that some observers likened the US-China summit to a bilateral encounter during the Cold War in the nuclear arms race, as Dustin Volz and Kidd Metz wrote (*).
However, expectations of reaching a serious agreement are still low. The two countries are locked in a fierce race in the field of artificial intelligence, which both sides consider crucial to achieving military, technological and economic superiority, and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion prevails between them, according to foreign policy analysts.
American technical superiority
Western experts generally estimate that the United States is about six months ahead of China in the AI race in terms of its leading models. However, this number masks the complex nature of the relationship between the two countries, further complicating efforts to reach an agreement on how to address AI safety risks.
Here's a look at the areas in which the United States outperforms China in the field of artificial intelligence, and the areas in which it lags behind its most prominent geopolitical rival.
* In America: superiority in the number of computer chips
Access to high-quality computer chips is crucial. The United States has an indisputable advantage over China in computer chips; Most of the specialized chips used to build and operate artificial intelligence technologies are designed by American companies. This includes Nvidia, the Silicon Valley chip maker that is now the most valuable company in the world.
Over the past decade, three US presidential administrations have imposed export restrictions that limit China's access to high-performance electronic chips. While China strives to circumvent these restrictions, Chinese AI researchers often cite the chip shortage as their biggest obstacle.
* In China: Securing electronic chips
Leading Chinese companies have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to secure the chips they need. To bypass US export restrictions, these companies often purchase remote access to data centers outside China. This has enabled China, over the past year, to reduce the performance gap between its systems and leading American technologies.
At the same time, China is building its own chip-making industry. But, according to its own admission, Huawei (the communications and electronics company leading this effort) is still years away from producing electronic chips that match the performance of current Nvidia chips. But even with Huawei's support, Chinese AI companies like Moonshot have had difficulty obtaining the additional chips needed to meet demand.
Between the decline in the popularity of artificial intelligence... and enthusiasm for it
* Challenges resulting from the decline in the popularity of smart systems among Americans
Public opinion polls in the United States indicate that artificial intelligence has become increasingly unpopular over the past year, to the point that it has become a central issue in the midterm elections. Many Americans worry that artificial intelligence will threaten their jobs, undermine education, and, finally, pose a threat to humanity. A Pew Research Center poll conducted this week showed that 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with establishing a new local data center (in their area). Many politicians are striving to present a wide range of proposals to regulate this technology, after revealing hacks of rogue artificial intelligence systems of other companies.
* Greater enthusiasm in China
By the nature of its centralized systems, China does not need to engage in intense public debate about how or whether it is feasible to rein in artificial intelligence. Although polls in China may be questionable, they consistently indicate greater enthusiasm for adopting artificial intelligence.
Chinese citizens in general appear to be more optimistic about artificial intelligence, and they are even among the most optimistic about this technology in the entire world, according to a survey conducted by KPMG in 47 countries last year. About 69 percent of Chinese said that the benefits of this technology outweigh its risks, compared to only 35 percent of Americans who agreed. This technology is also becoming more integrated into daily life, including service robots in hotels and restaurants, in addition to medical chatbots in hospitals.
Artificial intelligence and economics
* The flexibility of the American economy
The US economy has so far shown greater resilience in the face of massive investments in artificial intelligence.
Another advantage of the United States is that its economy has been more resilient during the AI boom; Stock indices are close to record levels, and fears of the artificial intelligence bubble bursting have not yet materialized. Also, fears of job losses as a result of the spread of this technology in American companies have not yet appeared in economic data.
There are some indications that AI is contributing to slower wage growth in jobs most affected by this technology, and fewer job opportunities, especially for young people. Applying for jobs, especially for beginners, has become more difficult thanks to the use of artificial intelligence in writing CVs or screening applicants. But overall, the economic distress directly related to AI has been much less than many economists expected.
* The “fragility” of the economy in China
The situation is different in China, as the economic hardship it faces, including high youth unemployment, declining consumer spending, and an economic downturn, threatens to undermine Beijing's massive investments in artificial intelligence. Chinese economists have recently issued warnings that the Chinese economy is fragile, and may become more fragile, due to the country's spending focus on artificial intelligence.
Different artificial intelligence models
The nature of AI models in the United States and China is fundamentally different.
* Court forms in the United States
Leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, are tightening their grip on how their technologies are used. It is building elaborate security controls, hoping to prevent users from spreading misinformation or hacking into computer networks.
As concerns grow about the risks of artificial intelligence, these companies are calling for federal laws to tighten this approach. She says the government should review AI technologies before they are rolled out to ensure appropriate security controls are in place – and many policymakers, governors and experts agree.
* Open source models in China
Leading Chinese companies take a different stance; Companies like DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Z.ai typically make their most powerful technologies “open source.” Which means that anyone is free to use these systems and modify them as they wish.
Open source has stimulated the development of computer software, the Internet, and artificial intelligence for decades. The idea is that technology advances faster when its code is freely available for anyone to examine, use, and improve. By making their technologies open source, Chinese companies can pool their resources and accelerate their efforts. If American regulators impede the progress of American open source projects - as some criticism suggests - China may gain a significant advantage.
Developers around the world are adopting Chinese technologies
Many experts believe that if the best open source systems come from China, developers around the world will build their applications based on Chinese technologies. This has already begun, even in Silicon Valley.
“These models are still in their early stages, but in some tasks they are comparable to the leading American systems,” says Rehan Ahmed, one of the founders of the Silicon Valley start-up AlphaXiv, which has been using the latest Chinese technology over the past few months.
Anyone can use these open source technologies for malicious purposes, including, in particular, cyberattacks. But security experts say that this is offset by another phenomenon: Anyone can use the same techniques to defend against malicious attacks.
China's progress in energy and human talent
* The field of electric energy: China’s progress
Some believe that if China can build a viable chip industry; It may overtake the United States thanks to an advantage it has developed in another field: electric power.
Pioneering microchips, stacked by the thousands in giant data centers, require huge amounts of electricity. It requires enormous electrical energy to the point that major American companies cannot obtain what they need from the current electricity grid. Therefore, these companies are increasingly turning to wind power, nuclear power or even gas turbines installed next to their data centers.
Although the United States has a significant lead in the field of microchips, China appears to be able to gain the upper hand thanks to years of rebuilding its electrical grid.
* Artificial intelligence talents
China tops the list of countries producing talent in the field of artificial intelligence. Since 2024, studies have shown that China, by some measures, has overtaken the United States as the largest producer of AI talent, producing nearly half of the world's top researchers. In contrast, the percentage of American researchers in this field did not exceed 18 percent.
Researchers born and educated in China have long played pivotal roles in leading American AI laboratories. As recent studies have shown, they continue to lead important AI research in various American sectors, both industrial and academic. However, an increasing number of them now reside in China, and work in companies such as “Moonshot”, “ZAI”, and “Deep Sec”.
