China Pulse poll: Mainland Chinese people are more inclined to use diplomatic means to unify Taiwan

The China Pulse is the latest poll of mainland citizens, conducted between April 16 and June 26. This time period spans the first summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in May this year, but it was released on the eve of Xi Jinping’s return visit to the United States last month.

The survey results can be summarized as follows: Mainland Chinese people prefer diplomatic pressure rather than military force to resolve the "unification issue" with Taiwan, and their views of the United States remain at a low level, although they favor Beijing's engagement with Washington in the fields of trade and security.

Nick Zeller, one of the organizers of the survey and chief researcher at The Carter Center in the United States, said: "The Chinese public's attitude towards Taiwan is highly consistent with China's domestic propaganda about Taiwan. Peaceful cross-strait relations are undoubtedly the first choice. But if Taipei says, 'We are now officially autonomous,' you will see a military response."

The survey results also show that mainland China has a higher favorable impression of Taiwan than other economies, giving Taiwan a score of 61 out of 100.

Military reunification or peaceful reunification?

The survey of 2,500 people found divided views on resorting to force to achieve reunification. If Taiwan declares independence, the public's preferred reactions include: attacking Kinmen and the Matsu Islands (77%), imposing a naval blockade (59%), and imposing economic sanctions (56%).

Those who support non-pressure methods are more likely to strengthen cultural exchanges and promote trade (about 82%), as well as relax work and residence policies (about 72%).

It is worth noting that after Trump’s visit to Beijing in May, the proportion of respondents who opposed the use of force increased significantly from 32% to 40%.

This may reflect the pragmatic US president's decision to delay a $14 billion arms sale to Taipei, as well as comments he made on the return flight and in an interview with Fox News. Trump said at the time that, frankly, arms sales were a "very good bargaining chip" for the United States.

However, Reuters quoted Taiwan Defense Minister Ku Li-hsiung as saying on Tuesday that Taiwan had not heard of U.S. plans to split a potential $14 billion arms sale into smaller batches to avoid overly irritating Beijing. Gu Lixiong also added that Washington's commitment to Taipei's defense has not changed.

Mainland Chinese people don’t like the United States but can cooperate

China Pulse also asked mainland Chinese people about their views on the United States. The results show that the mainland Chinese public still has a relatively negative view of the United States, with the score falling slightly to 32 out of 100 since the last round of the survey six months ago. Nearly three-quarters of the respondents regard the United States as a national security threat to China, with concerns about Taiwan and trade issues at the top of the list; younger and more educated Chinese people show the most moderate attitude towards the United States.

Zeller, a lead researcher at The Carter Center, added: "I understand the psychology of how they look at the United States is: We don't like you, but we are as powerful as you, so we will work with you."

Poll results worthy of attention also include mainland Chinese people’s views on the rest of the world. After Trump’s visit to China in May and his meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese people’s belief in their country’s superiority rose from an already extremely high 89% to 95%.