The months of February have been chosen, in recent times, to start a war: Donald Trump did so on February 28, 2025, and three years earlier, in 2022, Vladimir Putin, Russian dictator, chose the 24th of the same month to begin his offensive on Ukraine, which still continues today. With the east of the country devastated by bombs and a good part of the capital, kyiv, there are those who continue to endure the risk of war alongside the Ukrainians. Citi is the only global bank that remains and acts as a bridge for international companies and investors that maintain contact with the country; but its role goes further because it aspires to channel the billion-dollar investment flows that come from abroad to undertake a long-delayed desire such as the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the war.
According to the latest report prepared by the Citi Institute, 'Rebuilding Ukraine', nearly $588 billion (about €511 billion at the current exchange rate) is needed over the next decade to cover the damage that has been done to public infrastructure, housing and other businesses in the country. The entity understands that about 40% of these needs can come from the private sector, with new initiatives or as support for public institutions. "It represents nearly three times the GDP of Ukraine in 2025; the equivalent of 2.6% of that of the European Union, or a quarter of that of Russia; and adjusted for inflation, 3.5 times the aid that the United States allocated to Europe in the Marshall Plan after World War II," analyzes the study. But this is not a watertight figure, since it is estimated that Russian attacks are increasingly causing greater economic damage. In 2025 alone, financing needs increased by 12%, mainly due to the fact that shelling intensified on the capital, kyiv, where damage soared by 49%.
"Practically every sector of the economy will need to be rebuilt; however, there are five sectors that account for two-thirds of all needs," analysts say: housing, energy and extraction plants, transportation, commerce and industry, and agriculture. Beyond the numbers, the war will be a turning point in the 'new Ukraine' once the tanks are removed. And the country, as it was known, will cease to exist because if the conflict has served any purpose, it is to redefine the role of Ukraine as a natural border with the Russian regime. Amy Thompson, one of the authors of the report, speaks of the "accelerated emergence of a new economy on Europe's eastern frontier (...) We are not talking about a simple return - that is, how long it will take to return to the previous situation - but rather the emergence of a new Ukraine; especially if we consider the approach of building back better (Build Back Better)" in terms of housing or energy as the European Union seeks its independence.
However, Citi finds it difficult for these investment flows to arrive before the conflict is over. "Peace is essential to see how capital moves at scale because they need to ensure that their operations are safe, that the people who are going to work and live their lives there are also safe," Thompson acknowledges. Although the machinery has already been put in motion: there are initial commitments signed, there are those who are even entering Ukraine in areas that have not been affected by the war... but, without a doubt, the great flow of investment awaits behind the border.
Citi Institute visualizes three fundamental levers that will drive the arrival of foreign money to rebuild the country and the first of them is the possible integration into the European Union. "With historical figures from other reports, we know that the inflow of investments from non-EU countries shoots up between 60% and 85% and rises another 50% from EU members" each time a state joins as a new member. "We believe that it will be a differential factor, although there are two more: the need to reinforce the defense on the eastern front and the demand for critical minerals", one of the keys to the Ukrainian economy.
Over the last four years, international investors have sometimes threatened to enter the country and start working on its reconstruction, although in the end this has come to nothing. This time, however, it could be different. At least that's what Citi believes for two reasons. "The first is the extraordinary opportunity for reconstruction that exists, and a second very important reason is the need to support the public sector, something that seems unlikely to be able to do alone (...) It should maintain its investments at a constant pace over the next decade. This leads us to think that the private sector should be part of Team Ukraine as well."
One of the examples is housing. It is estimated, for example, that 14% of the total housing stock has been destroyed, although there are some areas particularly affected, such as the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions in the east of the country or some neighborhoods in the capital, kyiv. "Housing reconstruction is a very good example to get us closer to what the reconstruction of Ukraine could look like. Beyond rebuilding large buildings for post-Soviet-era families, there is an opportunity to create more energy efficient houses and, unfortunately, almost imperatively they are going to have to be more accessible homes" for all people who have suffered physical damage during the war. The other key sector is energy. "The pipeline of dream projects has many energy initiatives that seek to support the independence" of the country, explains Thompson, who recognizes that the recurring theme every time this issue is discussed is that of achieving a new country that "moves from the Soviet system to a new way of generating and distributing energy." There are no concrete figures because the first thing is to achieve peace, assess damage and needs and, from there, allocate funds to the construction of the new Ukraine. What seems certain is that private companies will play a fundamental role.
Meanwhile, life in the country continues normally in many regions, especially those closest to the west. The analyst recalls that the size of Ukraine is comparable to France and Germany combined. The CEB (European Social Development Bank) grants mortgages for those citizens who want to buy a home and the Government tries to work normally in a country immersed in a war economy.
