Climate, UN: emissions down only 6% by 2035, objectives off course

Governments strengthen climate commitments, but the world remains far from the goals of the Paris Agreement. The new national strategies foresee a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions of just 6% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. Even with full implementation of current commitments, the decline would only reach 9%. A trajectory still insufficient to contain global warming to within 1.5°C, while estimates associated with climate commitments indicate a temperature increase of between 1.7 and 2.3°C by the end of the century.

This is the picture outlined by the UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in the new reports published in view of COP31, scheduled for 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Turkey. The analyzes examine national emission reduction targets, progress in their implementation and strategies for adapting to the effects of climate change.

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) report examines 127 new plans registered between January 2024 and August 2026, submitted by 154 Parties to the Paris Agreement and representing approximately 70% of global emissions. The documents show a growing integration of climate policies into economic strategies, with greater attention to energy security, technological innovation and business involvement.

It is especially in the energy sector that progress and contradictions emerge. Around 70% of countries plan to intervene on electricity networks, essential infrastructure to integrate a growing share of renewable sources and support the electrification of consumption. Only 27%, however, explicitly mention in their plans the commitment to progressively abandon fossil fuels. Even more limited is the presence of concrete objectives: just 10% of countries indicate goals to reduce electricity generation from fossil fuels by 2035 and only 6% provide explicit objectives for the elimination of fossil fuels. Attention to methane is more widespread, included in the climate plans of 92% of countries. A picture that highlights the distance between the development of clean technologies and the transformation of energy systems, still heavily dependent on oil, gas and coal.

However, the transition is taking on a more central role in economic policies. 65% of countries recognize the contribution of clean energy to the security of supplies, while 98% declare that they involve local administrations, civil society and the private sector in the implementation of their plans, compared to the 70% recorded in previous commitments.

The problem remains the distance between the announced objectives and the expected results. “These reports show that a growing number of governments are taking climate action across all sectors of the economy, to reap the benefits of clean energy and climate resilience,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. “Collective progress,” however, he warned, “remains insufficient and many countries still face significant obstacles in implementing commitments.”

Difficulties also emerge on the adaptation front. As of October 20, 2026, 146 countries had begun the process of developing national plans to address climate impacts, but only 81 developing countries had formally submitted their plans. Key barriers include access to finance, complex approval procedures and delays in disbursing resources.