College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections After Week 5

That was quite a road statement in the SEC by Keelon Russell and the Alabama offense.

The Crimson Tide's 56-23 thumping against previously unbeaten Mississippi State should answer any lingering questions about Alabama's status as a College Football Playoff title contender this season.

Updated bowl and College Football Playoff projections after Week 5 feature a surging Alabama team setting the pace in college football's most unforgiving conference, alongside Georgia, who will meet the Crimson Tide next week. The SEC holds two of the projected top four seeds, which doesn't include top-ranked Texas, a reminder that its contenders are jockeying for first-round byes while trying to survive the weekly grind.

Ask previously unbeaten Florida about its unforgiving reality check at Missouri.

October has barely arrived, but the stakes already feel like November. Elsewhere, postseason destinations continue to shift as contenders separate themselves and preseason favorites lose ground. Here's where the bowl picture stands nearing the midseason point across college football.

We've updated our playoff bracket projections and full list of bowl games after Week 5. A couple of new teams entered our postseason lookahead, and there are major changes within the CFP top 12.

Cricket Celebration

Projection: South Carolina State vs. Alabama State

Salute to Veterans

Projection: Kennesaw State vs. Old Dominion

Frisco Football Classic

Projection: WKU vs. Louisiana Tech

Boca Raton

Projection: Boise State vs. Minnesota

Gasparilla

Projection: Florida State vs. USF

New to this week's bowl projections is Mike Norvell's Seminoles after a 31-point backhand of Virginia. Quarterback Ashton Daniels rushed for 136 yards and five touchdowns for a team that's slightly better execution away against SMU from having a single blemish on the resume at Alabama. Norvell's team continues to fight, which is what you want to see from a squad under pressure to succeed.

Myrtle Beach

Projection: Jacksonville State vs. Ohio

Potato

Projection: North Dakota State vs. Western Michigan

Puerto Rico

Projection: Washington State vs. Toledo

Cure

Projection: Cincinnati vs. Georgia State

Independence

Projection: Tulane vs. Oklahoma State

New Orleans

Projection: Troy vs. Liberty

Armed Forces

Projection: West Virginia vs. UConn

Poinsettia

Projection: Arizona State vs. New Mexico

Frisco Bowl

Projection: Fresno State vs. North Texas

The Mean Green opened conference play Thursday night with a thrilling 45-44 win at Tulsa behind five total touchdowns from UCF transfer Tayven Jackson at quarterback. Baylor Hayes tallied five touchdowns, too, for the Golden Hurricane, but it wasn't enough after North Texas stopped Tulsa short in overtime on a two-point conversion try. North Texas won't play a ranked team the rest of the way, with the Nov. 21 showdown at Tulane potentially being for a spot in the American title game.

New Mexico

Projection: UNLV vs. Louisiana

Hawaii

Projection: Air Force vs. ECU

Pinstripe

Projection: Virginia vs. Penn State

One of the "wish we weren't here" games of the postseason, the Cavaliers and Nittany Lions each had playoff aspirations before recent meltdowns all but cratered those hopes. The light at the end of the tunnel for both teams is awfully dim after road blowouts in Week 5 were indictments of what's going wrong in recent weeks.

Fenway

Projection: North Carolina vs. Memphis

It's not going to be easy for the Tar Heels given their remaining schedule, but a respectable 37-26 rain-soaked loss to Notre Dame should give Bill Belichick's team a sense of confidence pushing forward. North Carolina is a red zone stop from being 3-1 with a brand-new roster and offense under Bobby Petrino.

Mayo

Projection: Duke vs. Wisconsin

These teams are a combined 8-1 this season and both have hopes of getting to their respective conference championship games with a few breaks over the next two months. Wisconsin doesn't have to play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon in the regular season, while the unbeaten Blue Devils go to Miami on Nov. 14 in what should be a season-defining showdown.

68 Ventures

Projection: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State

Cactus

Projection: Nebraska vs. Kansas State

Military

Projection: Army vs. Louisville

Birmingham

Projection: NC State vs. Auburn

Pop-Tarts

Projection: Clemson vs. Houston

That was too close for comfort from the Cougars. Trailing 17-0 midway through the third quarter at home against UCF, Willie Fritz's team ran off 27 unanswered points to push to 4-1 overall and keep pace near the top of the Big 12. We're projecting the Big 12's runner-up or third-place team to play in Orlando against one of the ACC's best.

Alamo

Projection: UCLA vs. BYU

Gator

Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State

Friday night's win at Virginia Tech came with a price for the Panthers — starting quarterback Mason Heintschel, who went down with a leg injury during the first half — is out for the rest of the season. That's a significant development that could torch this rocket-fast start for Pat Narduzzi's team unless the unproven Holden Geriner can deliver.

The Bulldogs are unbeaten no more after Saturday's loss to Alabama, a mistake-filled performance that included a couple of throws from Kamario Taylor that he'd like to have back. Mississippi State plays LSU, Oklahoma and Texas over its next three games, so more season-defining moments are coming.

Music City

Projection: Michigan vs. Missouri

A frustrating first season for Kyle Whittingham is continuing at Michigan. After Bryce Underwood's two-interception outing during a loss at Minnesota, the Wolverines' coach said his staff would consider all angles during their bye week to try and fix this offense. Michigan (3-2) is lucky to not be 1-4 right now following consecutive losses to open Big Ten play.

Who saw that performance coming out of 25th-ranked Missouri? The Tigers annihilated Florida, the first win over a top-10 team in Eli Drinkwitz's tenure, and in convincing fashion. Jamal Roberts eclipsed 200 yards on the ground, Austin Simmons had another 300-yard passing performance, and Missouri executed flawlessly to rebound from last week's loss at Mississippi State.

ReliaQuest

Projection: Northwestern vs. Texas A&M

There's a realistic chance the Wildcats get to eight (or more) wins this season, which would mark another step forward for David Braun at Northwestern. Friday night's dominant victory over Penn State was a tone-setter, and a narrow setback at Indiana showed this team was going to be a tough out in the Big Ten.

This would mark Texas A&M's first trip to Tampa in program history. The Aggies have never played in Orlando either, but we expect the Citrus Bowl to go after the highest-ranked SEC team not in the CFP.

Sun

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona

Las Vegas

Projection: Washington vs. Oklahoma

Texas

Projection: Tennessee vs. Texas Tech

The Vols' offense looked broken in Week 5 against Auburn before George MacIntyre came off the bench and gave Tennessee new life. He should be the starter for next week's trip to Arkansas as the Vols look to hang around the top-15 with a road victory.

Citrus

Projection: Ole Miss vs. Iowa

For now, we're picking the Rebels to finish as the second SEC team with nine wins but falling just short of a playoff bid despite a head-to-head loss with LSU in Week 2. Part of that has to do with the blowout loss at Florida, which is losing some of its luster after the Gators' setback at Missouri on Saturday. Both teams have challenging slates left, and it may come down to how each team performs against top-ranked Texas, a common opponent.

For the Hawkeyes, their first loss of the season came at the hands of Ohio State. An 11-win campaign is still very much a possibility given the rest of the schedule, the most favorable in the Big Ten the rest of the way.

First Responder

Projection: UTSA vs. SMU

Liberty

Projection: UCF vs. Kentucky

Arizona

Projection: UMass vs. Wyoming

Holiday

Projection: USC vs. Wake Forest

Ten wins and a trip to California for bowl season? That's a possible — if not, probable — scenario unfolding for the Demon Deacons under second-year coach Jake Dickert. The only matchup left against a nationally-ranked opponent is SMU after splitting show-me matchups with Miami and Louisville last month.

College Football Playoff

First round

Projection: (9) Oregon at (8) Utah

Two games to watch the rest of the way for the Utes in their quest to get to the Big 12 championship this season — and they all come in consecutive weeks against Houston, (at) Cincinnati and BYU during the second half of the slate. Trips to Arizona and TCU could be tricky in November, too. For now, Utah is our new projected conference champion out of what we're expecting to be a one-bid league.

Projection: (10) Florida at (7) Indiana

The Gators were humbled at Missouri, but not selling all of my stock just yet on Florida after failing to show on the road. Jon Sumrall will need to fix some of this team's problems defensively, but the win over Ole Miss will age well, and there's still a clear path to 10 wins if the Gators can split upcoming matchups with Texas and Georgia. If that doesn't happen, welcome to the logjam that is 9-3 in the SEC.

Projection: (11) LSU at (6) Notre Dame

Lane Kiffin's team could punch that ticket with 10 victories, but they're going to need a hot finish and still have to play Alabama, Texas and Tennessee in November alone. We're tossing the Tigers back in this week and believe that, should Ole Miss and LSU each finish with nine wins, it will come down to overall resume and not the head-to-head meeting back in Week 3.

Projection: (12) JMU at (5) Texas

If the unbeaten Longhorns didn't have five remaining games against top-25 teams in conference play, we'd slot them inside the top four seed, but it's the toughest slate in the league over the second half of the campaign. There's bound to be a loss or two somewhere, which could be a blessing in disguise if it gets Texas out of the SEC Championship Game and another week of rest before the postseason.

Quarterfinals

Peach

Projection: (9) Oregon vs. (1) Miami

Sticking with our preseason top seed here, Miami will be No. 1 unless proven otherwise. This projection slots the Hurricanes as the 13-0 ACC champions. Any other record and seeding gets complicated for Mario Cristobal's squad.

Cotton

Projection: (7) Indiana vs. (2) Alabama

Pushing to No. 2 as the new projected SEC champion, Alabama has earned it. Russell's playing at an elite level in his first season as the Crimson Tide's starting quarterback, and we're starting to see a team that's gelling at the right time. Going into Starkville and responding with the biggest road margin over a ranked opponent in program history was telling.

Rose

Projection: (6) Notre Dame vs. (3) Ohio State

Jeremiah Smith is the best player in the country, and Ohio State's defense might be figuring it out. After ranking 11th in the Big Ten in explosive plays allowed coming into Saturday's 31-14 win at Iowa, the Buckeyes settled down and kept chunk gains to a minimum. Notre Dame rolled in a rain-soaked Chapel Hill, but moves out of our top four this week due to a projected loss (to Miami in November) and a couple SEC teams with better overall strength of record.

Fiesta

Projection: (5) Texas vs. (4) Georgia

Strength of conference will matter greatly in a couple of months when the final playoff pairings are revealed. Five SEC teams could crack the top-12, and these are two of the best who could meet multiple times. Georgia hasn't gotten past the quarters since winning the second of its national championships under Kirby Smart, so that's a storyline to watch here.

Semifinals

Orange

Projection: (4) Georgia vs. (1) Miami

Sugar