Commanders vs. Giants prediction, odds, time: NFL Week 10 'Thursday Night Football' picks by proven model

The New York Giants will look to widen their lead in the NFC East when they take on the rival Washington Commanders in a key matchup on 'Thursday Night Football.' Washington is coming off a 20-13 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, while New York held on for a 19-11 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders (2-5-1), who are third in the division, are 0-3 on the road this season. The Giants (5-2-1), who are 3-2-1 within the conference, are 3-1 on their home field in 2026. New York quarterback J.J. McCarthy (hip) and running back Cam Skattebo (hamstring) were both full participants at practice on Tuesday after being limited on Monday.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Washington is 4-0-1 over the last five meetings. The latest Commanders vs. Giants odds have New York as a 1.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points scored is 40.5, marking a 4-point drop since opening at 44.5. New York is 6-2 against the spread this season, which is tied for the league's second-best ATS mark, while Washington is 4-4 versus the line. Before making any Commanders vs. Giants picks, be sure to see the 'Thursday Night Football' predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season on a 62-52 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Commanders vs. Giants. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Giants vs. Commanders:

Top Commanders vs. Giants predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Commanders vs. Giants, the model is going Over 40.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in three of their last four head-to-head meetings. The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Washington games and in seven of the last 10 New York games. It is 3-1 in Commanders games when the line is under 45 points.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads the Washington offense. In six starts, he has completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,250 yards and seven touchdowns with zero interceptions. He also leads the team in rushing, carrying 31 times for 252 yards (8.1 average) and two touchdowns.

New York, meanwhile, has seen some good things from McCarthy since acquiring him a trade earlier this season. In four games, he has completed 63.2% of his passes for 622 yards and one touchdown with one interception. He has also carried nine times for 51 yards.

The model projects 50 combined points as the Over hits 66% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make 'Thursday Night Football' picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.