How can Marine Le Pen's progress in the polls be explained, particularly in the second round?

Jean-Daniel Lévy is director of the Politics & Opinion department and deputy director of the Toluna France-Harris Interactive institute.

Between April and October 2026, Marine Le Pen gained three points of voting intentions in the first round (from 32 to 35%) over the eight successive waves of the Toluna Harris Interactive barometer conducted for RTL and M6, and between four and eight points in each of the second round duels tested, facing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann and Gabriel Attal. The notable fact has less to do with his score than with the nature of his vote: an intact base, an electorate which is expanding without changing its convictions and motivations which are moving from support to credibility.

In the first round, progress in the oldest electorate