How 'outsiders' and splits between allies raised the profile of the Senate election in SC
Carlos Bolsonaro's candidacy after seven terms as councilor in Rio de Janeiro remodeled and divided the board of the Santa Catarina right, while the union of the left, as in 2022, seeks a place among favorites.
By Caroline Borges, Ânderson Silva, g1 SC and NSC
The entry of Rio councilor Carlos Bolsonaro into the Senate race in Santa Catarina divided the PL and made the election the main attraction in the state.
Carol De Toni had her name questioned in the PL, but received support from Michelle Bolsonaro after threatening to run for another party.
After being passed over from the PL ticket by Flávio Bolsonaro, Esperidião Amin allied the PP with the PSD, supporting João Rodrigues for the Santa Catarina government.
The three lead voting intentions in the polls for the two vacancies, but Décio Lima (PT), from the left front, also appears among the best positioned.
Historically supporting, the election for the Senate in Santa Catarina became the center of attention this year with the entry of Carlos Bolsonaro into the dispute. The arrival of the Rio native, labeled as an "outsider" by his opponents, triggered an internal split in the PL and on the Santa Catarina right in the months leading up to the candidates' definitions.
With the first vacancy pre-defined for former president Jair Bolsonaro's "son 02", support and coalitions in the state were also shaped, pushing the dispute for the Santa Catarina government into the background at that moment.
Released on Thursday (25), the second Quaest poll of the election gave new contours to the uncertainty: Carol De Toni (PL) has 17% of voting intentions, Carlos Bolsonaro obtained 16%. Behind is Esperidião Amin (PP), with 15%. Technically, the three are tied.
When adding the fourth place in the dispute, Décio Lima (PT) who has 10% of the numbers, the uncertainty continues. This is because, according to the survey, Carlos, Esperidião and Décio are also tied.
Still in data from the latest Quaest survey, the numbers showed that 38% of voters can still change their vote until October 4th, while 62% say that the choice is final.
First placed numerically in the survey, Carol de Toni had her name questioned in the dispute within the Liberal Party (PL) itself at the beginning of 2026, still in the pre-campaign period. With Carlos' arrival in Santa Catarina, the party began to consider reserving seats for the Rio councilor and Amin, in an attempt to form a coalition with Progressistas (PP).
In February, the federal deputy elected with the highest vote in the state in 2022 announced that she would leave the PL to run for another party for the vacancy in the face of the party's refusal. In this musical chairs, Carol received support from Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of Carlos.
Amin was raised as another name on the right, as the initial articulation plan predicted that governor Jorginho Mello, president of the Santa Catarina PL and candidate for re-election, would nominate Carol de Toni, while former president Jair Bolsonaro would nominate Esperidião Amin for the Senate race.
However, Amin was publicly ignored by liberals when Flávio Bolsonaro, PL's candidate for president of the republic, used social media to confirm that the names for the race in Santa Catarina would be his brother's and Carol's.
Amin, who is president of the PP in Santa Catarina, then chose to form a coalition with the PSD and announced support for João Rodrigues for the government, distancing himself from Jorginho, but defending a vote for Flávio Bolsonaro for the presidency.
After building a seven-term career as a councilor in Rio de Janeiro, Carlos changed his electoral title to Santa Catarina in December 2025.
The movement complied with the legislation, but served as a message to both supporters and opponents that he would be the number 1 choice for the Senate by the PL and a movement by the party to increase the number of seats in the National Congress from 2027 onwards.
With the PL ticket "closed", Amin formed a coalition of parties that also did not find space in the Liberal Party, such as MDB and PSD. State deputy Lunelli (MDB) ran for the Senate and was expected to vote married.
On the left, which is seeking to occupy a seat in the Senate after years, the bet was on Décio Lima (PT), second placed in the government elections in 2022 and who took great advantage of the various right-wing candidates in that dispute, with names from PL, União Brasil, PP and Republicans.
The situation is similar in 2026. In the composition of the ticket with Afrânio Boppré (PSOL), the left unified around the candidacies seeking to advance amid the spraying of names from the right.
