Li Zheng of Tsinghua University: COP31 faces three difficulties from “regulation” to “implementation”

China News Service, Antalya, November 13. Title: Li Zheng of Tsinghua University: COP31 faces three difficulties from "regulation" to "implementation"

China News Service reporter Chen Su

The 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) is being held in Antalya, Turkey. During this period, Li Zheng, a member of China’s National Expert Committee on Climate Change and dean of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Service that the COP is shifting from “legislation” to “implementation.” The key is to turn commitments into actions. “Implementation” faces three difficulties.

In Li Zheng’s view, since the Paris Agreement, global climate governance is shifting from “setting goals and establishing rules” to “turning existing commitments into actions.” "Implementation" is by no means just a slogan, but must be implemented step by step along the lines of "goals - policies and systems - action roadmap - executable actions".

"Without policy and institutional support, the goal is just a castle in the air." Li Zheng said that "implementation" faces three difficulties: First, the gap between ambition and implementation. According to the United Nations Environment Program report, the NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) path of each country still points to a warming of about 2.8°C by the end of the 21st century. Global emissions must fall by about 43% by 2030 at the latest compared with 2019; secondly, it is difficult to obtain funds. NCQG (Climate Finance Collective Quantitative Goal) has an amount, but the funding mechanism, availability, accountability and debt sustainability are not clear, and the credibility of developed countries’ investment is facing doubts. The third is the rise of unilateralism and protectionism, which interferes with collective efforts, superimposes geopolitical conflicts and increases energy security risks, causing some countries to waver in their climate policies.

The 1.5°C temperature control target (the key temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement, which is to strive to control the increase in global average temperature within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is about to be exceeded. Some commentators believe that this means that the goal has failed. Li Zheng said that it cannot simply be said to be a "failure". It is more accurate to say that the path needs to be calibrated and the pace must be accelerated. Affected by emission stocks and inertia, the world is likely to experience a short-term "overshoot", that is, the temperature rise temporarily exceeds 1.5°C and then gradually declines.

He further said, "The reason why the goals are difficult to achieve is not that the goals themselves are set too high, but that countries have insufficient action and a slow pace of implementation. The correct direction is not to question the existing goals, but to actually increase the intensity of actions." The focus of emission reduction should shift from "peaking" to "deep decline"; the transformation of the energy system should be the main battlefield, using electrification and renewable energy to replace coal and oil; both mitigation and adaptation should be paid equal attention, and capital and technology transfer should keep up. "The goal is clear, but what is missing is the actions to match it."

Türkiye, the host of this conference, mainly promotes the "35×35" electrification goal, which is to increase the proportion of electricity in global terminal energy consumption to 35% by 2035. Li Zheng said that the initiative is the flagship item of the Presidency Action Agenda and is a supplement to multilateral negotiations, rather than a replacement for negotiations on "transformation away from fossil fuels".

"The real stalemate is not on the direction of 'whether to electrify', but on the institutional issues of 'how to define, how to restrict, how to evaluate, and what is its relationship with formal negotiations.'" Li Zheng believes that the confrontation is concentrated on four levels: the dispute between definition and caliber, the dispute between "green electrification" and "general electrification", the dispute between voluntary initiatives and progress assessment, and the dispute over the relationship between electrification initiatives and formal negotiations on "transformation away from fossil fuels".

He believes that actual emission reductions depend on the speed of delivery of policies in various countries and whether new electricity comes from clean power sources. "China's wind and solar installed capacity and new power system construction are actually in the same direction. China's experience can also provide other developing countries with a sample of 'transition without power shortage'."