Could US Marines sustain a war with China? Officers warn of Pacific weaknesses

US Marines deployed across the western Pacific could struggle to sustain their forces, move missile batteries and secure permission to launch operations from allied territory in a conflict with China, according to assessments by Marine Corps officers and independent analysts.

Writing separately in the November issue of the US Naval Institute’s Proceedings journal, retired lieutenant general Stephen Sklenka and serving Lieutenant Colonel Merritt Mitchell identified vulnerabilities in the logistical and political arrangements supporting dispersed marine operations along the first island chain that stretches from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines towards Borneo.

Sklenka warned that in a conflict Chinese attacks on American bases and supply routes could isolate forward-deployed marines, while Mitchell questioned whether dispersed units could relocate quickly enough to evade Chinese strikes or secure permission to operate from allied territory.

The latter political challenge was underscored on November 6 when Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr reaffirmed that, under the Philippine constitution, United States forces could not launch offensive operations from Philippine territory in the event of hostilities involving Beijing and Taipei. The restriction also covered facilities under the allies’ Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.