
AI-generated summary
The U.S. and Iran have been in conflict for seven months, with a brief pause in fighting after a July outburst of violence. The U.S. has since focused on economic pressure on Iran, but hostilities have resumed as Iran continues to attack commercial traffic near the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices jumped more than 3% on Wednesday as fighting between the U.S. and Iran escalates in the Persian Gulf, raising investors' fears that energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will fall.
Brent futures gained 3.4% to $101.21 a barrel, the international benchmark's highest closing price since May 22. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced 3.3% to settle at $96.05.
The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers Tuesday in retaliation for attempted attacks on an American warship. The U.S. warship successfully evaded Iranian attack and no American personnel were harmed, U.S. Central Command said.
The escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its seventh month, is raising the risk of oil prices surging above $120 a barrel as attacks on shipping intensify, said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."
Goldman's base case remains for Persian Gulf exports to gradually recover as producers adapt to disruptions, including through alternative shipping routes and eventually additional pipeline capacity.
But the recent escalation has increased the chances of a more bullish scenario in which exports fail to recover in the coming months due to attacks on tankers, Struyven said.
The U.S. and Iran largely refrained from fighting for about a month after an outburst of violence in July. Washington has pivoted to applying economic pressure on Tehran. But fighting has erupted again as Iran continues to attack commercial traffic in and around Hormuz.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
oil prices could surge above $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping intensify
Possible · Within weeks
Persian Gulf exports may fail to recover in the coming months due to continued tanker attacks
Possible · Within months

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