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Back|美國期中選舉:民主黨有望奪回眾院 德州參院席次翻藍
美國期中選舉:民主黨有望奪回眾院 德州參院席次翻藍
Developing
德国之声·2 hours ago·Politics·🇨🇳China·

美國期中選舉:民主黨有望奪回眾院 德州參院席次翻藍

艾克顿有望成为俄亥俄州首位女州长,博顿斯将成为全美首位非裔女州长,得州参议院选战势均力敌

Quick Look

美国中期选举结果陆续出炉,民主党在俄亥俄州、佐治亚州等地取得胜选,艾克顿有望成为俄亥俄州首位女州长,博顿斯将成为全美首位非裔女州长,得州参议院选战势均力敌,特朗普支持率低于2018年同期。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美国中期选举结果陆续出炉,民主党在俄亥俄州、佐治亚州等地取得胜选。得州自1988年以来未曾选出民主党参议员,此次选战受到高度关注。佐治亚州过去20多年州长一职皆由共和党人掌握。

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俄亥俄州长选举,民主党籍的艾克顿(Amy Acton)击败了特朗普背书的共和党亿万富豪拉马斯瓦米(Vivek Ramaswamy)。她会是俄亥俄州史上第一位女性州长。

艾克顿是公共卫生专家,曾在新冠疫情期间担任该州卫生局长。

得州的联邦参议员民主党候选人塔拉里科(James Talarico)击败共和党的帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)。

这对民主党来说是重大胜利,也是对共和党的沈重打击。得州被视为传统红州,自1988年以来就未曾选出民主党参议员。

这是38年来,民主党首次赢得得州的联邦参议院席次。

根据美联社,民主党的博顿斯(Keisha Lance Bottoms)赢得佐治亚州长选举,创下历史纪录,成为全美第一位非裔女性州长。

博顿斯曾是亚特兰大市长,在这次中期选举击败了共和党的亿万富豪、从事医疗保健业的杰克森(Rick Jackson)。投票日前夕,博顿斯曾说:“我们此刻所做的事,会在历史上回响。”

博顿斯胜选对民主党而言具有重大意义。此前,知名的民主党投票权倡议者艾布拉姆斯(Stacey Abrams)曾两度尝试挑战共和党籍的州长坎普(Brian Kemp),均告失败。这一次,坎普任期届满、并未角逐州长。

博顿斯是佐治亚州的奴隶后裔,但在竞选期间,她并未刻意强调自己参选的历史意义,而是以述说家族史的方式谈论此事。

“我至少是第5代的格鲁吉亚人……之所以说是‘至少’,是因为我们家族最多只能追溯到5代以前,追溯到一座位于克劳福德维尔(Crawfordville)的种植园。”博顿斯说,她的祖父从佐治亚州的乡下移居到大城市亚特兰大,当时要去市区的建筑物“只能走后门”;后来她选上市长,则是从正门直接走进这些政府大楼。

这次竞选中,博托姆斯提出的政见包含扩大低收入群体的医疗补助(Medicaid)福利、降低家庭开支,并保障投票权。

过去20多年,佐治亚州长一职皆由共和党人掌握。这次选举对特朗普而言是一大挫败;此前他曾替杰克森站台。

在美国总统特朗普的家乡佛州,选举结果陆续出炉。

现任美国国务卿卢比奥曾经是佛州的联邦参议员,在他转任国务卿后,州长任命了前佛州检察总长穆迪(Ashley Moody)接任。如今在中期选举,穆迪对上了民主党的尼克松(Angie Nixon);根据美联社,目前99%的票数已开出,穆迪以51%比48%的得票率胜出。

州长选举亦由共和党人获胜:特朗普的盟友唐纳兹(Byron Donalds)以大约1.5个百分点的差距,击败民主党的乔利(David Jolly)。唐纳兹将成为佛州第一位非裔州长。

今年的中期选举,得州的参议员选战受到高度瞩目:民主党派出塔拉里科(James Talarico),共和党则由帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)出马。自1988年以来,得州都未曾选出民主党参议员,但这次选情胶著,部分民调显示塔拉里科略为领先,但胜负仍难以预料。

有神学背景的塔拉里科是得州州议会的众议员;帕克斯顿是得州检察总长,也是特朗普的亲近盟友。

这次得州约有770万选民提前投票,占了所有登记选民的四成以上,创下该州中期选举的纪录。有15个郡的提前投票人数,甚至高于2022年中期选举的总投票数。此外,拉丁裔选民人数激增,这个群体在得州相当重要。

DW在得州奥斯汀、厄尔巴索等地采訪数十位当地居民,许多人对美国经济、政治贪腐、严重政治对立等问题表示忧虑。

“我很心痛。身为一个美国人,却过得举步维艰,这很痛苦,”一位得州民众表示。

67岁的特朗普支持者Wilson Ihonvbere说:“经济是个大问题,现在东西都非常贵,这跟当初他们承诺我们的不一样。”

另一位民众Steve Schaffer则透露,他不打算投给塔拉里科,也不想投给帕克斯顿;他也批评了亿万富豪马斯克(Elon Musk)对共和党、尤其是得州选战的资助:“经济实力会转化为政治力量,但如今经济实力遭到公然的扭曲滥用,真的很难继续维持民主正常运作。”

据《纽约时报》报道,马斯克斥资约1.68亿美元支持参议院各个共和党候选人;然而,盡管投入如此庞大的资金,得州选情依然势均力敌。

通胀与物价被视为这次美国中期选举的关键话题,中国议题退居其次。无党派非政府组织“美中关系全国委员会”(NCUSCR)的节目《中国与国会山庄》(China & the Hill)指出,数据显示,这次竞选期间候选人和政治团体共制作了44则批评中国的电视广告,2022年期中选举时却有高达190则。

盡管如此,期中选举结果仍可能重塑国会版图、进而影响美中关系。该节目引述《南华早报》的分析指出,民主党若重掌国会,可能会加大对美中关系的审查力度,尤其是在关税、技术出口管制和台湾议题上。但总体来说,议员们仍可能对中国保持整体强硬立场。

多州参议员投票结果陆续出炉。根据美联社计票,佐治亚州的民主党参议员、39岁的奥瑟夫(Jon Ossof)赢得连任,击败了曾担任众议员的共和党候选人柯林斯(Mike Collins)。奥瑟夫是民主党的政治新星,被视为2028年美国总统大选的潜在候选人之一。

佐治亚州传统上较倾向共和党,年轻新星奥瑟夫的胜选成了热议焦点。不过,东岸其他地方的选举结果则如一般预期的发展。

在前美国总统拜登的家乡、东北部的德拉瓦州,民主党参议员库恩斯(Chris Coons)成功连任;该州自1994年以来,从无共和党人在参议员选举胜出。麻萨诸塞州亦由民主党的马基(Ed Markey)连任;新罕布夏州原来的民主党籍参议员沙欣(Jeanne Shaheen)则已退休,这次选举由同党的帕帕斯(Chris Pappas)接下她的席次。

值得注意的是,在南部的北卡罗来纳州,前州长库柏(Roy Cooper)赢得参院选举,击败共和党的沃特利(Michael Whatley),成功翻转了该州此前原为共和党的席次。该州原来的参议员提利斯(Thom Tillis)因去年跟特朗普在法案立场有冲突,这次并未寻求连任。

对民主党而言,库柏胜选是一大助力。过去3次的总统大选之中,北卡罗来纳州选民都选择了特朗普。

由美联社及各大主要电视台委托民调机构SSRS执行的出口民调显示,约有半数的美国选民,把今年的中期选举视为表达对现任总统特朗普不满的机会:四分之三的民众表示,他们对国家发展的方向感到“生气”或“不满意”;约70%的人希望国会能对总统带来更多制衡。

从民调看来,在加州、麻萨诸塞州等倾向民主党的地方,不满情绪非常高;甚至在倾向共和党的州,大多数的选民也都多少感到不满意。

初步的出口民调还显示,约有六成选民不认同特朗普的执政表现。根据美国哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)、国家广播公司(NBC),特朗普的支持率现在大约38%,比他第一次任内、2018年时中期选举时的45%更低。此外,他的支持率还低于小布什(George W. Bush)在2006年中期选举的时候;那场选举之后,共和党失去了参众两院的主导权。

根据NBC,多数选民把美国经济表现不佳归咎于特朗普。65%的选民认为,特朗普的政策导致了经济恶化;对大约一半的选民而言,生活成本是他们投票的重要因素。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 得州参议院选举最终结果将在计票完成后揭晓,胜负难以预料

    Likely · Within days

  • 若民主党重掌国会,可能加大对美中关系的审查力度,尤其在关税、技术出口管制和台湾议题上

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • ?得州参议院选举最终结果如何?
  • ?民主党是否将重掌国会控制权?
  • ?中期选举结果将如何影响特朗普的执政议程?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

Quick Look

美国中期选举结果陆续出炉,民主党在俄亥俄州、佐治亚州等地取得胜选,艾克顿有望成为俄亥俄州首位女州长,博顿斯将成为全美首位非裔女州长,得州参议院选战势均力敌,特朗普支持率低于2018年同期。

AI-generated summary

Story signals

News tone
Mixed
Emotional intensity
High
News value
High
Global impact
Global
Urgency
Developing
Follow-up likelihood
Very likely
Relevance window
Weeks

Source & Reliability

Source
德国之声
Story type
Hard news
Source quality
Full
Published
2 hours ago
View translation
中期选举
民主党
共和党
中期选举
Amy Acton
Vivek Ramaswamy
James Talarico
Ken Paxton
美联社
纽约时报
南华早报
美中关系全国委员会
俄亥俄州
佐治亚州
得州
佛州
民主党
共和党
特朗普
州长
参议员
俄亥俄州

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