The Horn of Africa region is witnessing development as the Ethiopian war expands to regional dimensions, after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of interfering in the current conflict between the federal government and the opposition Tigray Liberation Front, before matters developed to sever diplomatic relations and expel diplomats.
These rapid developments, which increase the waves of tension that have been raging between the two countries for about 3 years, are seen by experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat as putting the Horn of Africa region in front of open scenarios, the first of which is the expansion of the war to include Eritrea or Washington’s mediated intervention to prevent the deterioration of the region.
The long-standing tensions between the two neighboring countries have reached a critical stage following the outbreak of violent clashes last week between Ethiopian forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, raising fears of a renewal of the devastating civil war in Ethiopia that took place between 2020 and 2022 and claimed an estimated 600,000 people, according to Agence France-Presse.
Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations between them on Thursday, and the two sides exchanged accusations of fueling internal conflicts in light of the continuing fighting in northern Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa accused its neighbor Asmara of supporting the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
Ethiopia announced that it would expel ten Eritrean diplomats who “pose a direct threat to Ethiopian national security,” and that it would close its embassy in Asmara. While the Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that it “has no choice but to respond in kind and sever all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.”
The Foreign Ministry confirmed in a statement, on Thursday evening, that Ethiopia “has been adopting a continuous hostile approach against Eritrea for three years, seeking to obtain a sovereign maritime outlet by invading sovereign Eritrean ports and coastal areas.”
Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, according to which Ethiopia became without a sea port, and the two countries entered into a border war between 1998 and 2000, but relations improved between them when Abiy Ahmed assumed the presidency of the government in 2018, and they even fought together against Tigray forces during the civil war in 2020-2022.
However, relations subsequently deteriorated sharply, as Eritrea expressed fears that Ethiopia, which lacks a sea port, intended to invade it and seize access to the Red Sea.
Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister, Ambassador Mohamed Hegazy, believes that “the Horn of Africa is facing a very sensitive moment, because what is happening is no longer just a passing diplomatic dispute, but rather a dangerous coincidence between the escalation of fighting inside Ethiopia and the sudden collapse of Ethiopian-Eritrean relations.”
He warned that these rapid developments “open the door to possibilities whose extent is difficult to predict, especially since these files relate directly to the security of the Red Sea, Sudan, the security of the Horn of Africa, and the security of the Nile waters.”
According to Hegazy, this Ethiopian position is evidence that “the security and political environment surrounding Ethiopia has become more fragile than ever before,” stressing that “the most dangerous thing about the current situation is the possibility that the Ethiopian internal crisis will turn into a regional proxy conflict, and that the confrontation will move from statements, accusations, and diplomatic expulsion, to direct security and military movements.”
Eritrean political analyst, who specializes in African affairs, Abdul Qadir Muhammad Ali, believes that the recent development between the two countries “cannot be separated from the entire context of tension that has occurred in relations between them over the past years,” stressing that “the matter turning into a kind of military confrontation between the two parties remains a possible possibility.”
Hundreds have been killed and wounded since the resumption of violent fighting in northern Ethiopia on September 24, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched attacks inside the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, with the support of the armed coalition that was formed days before the escalation.
With the escalation of the “Tigray Liberation Front,” Mohammed believes that Ethiopia is now more concerned with its internal affairs than reaching the Eritrean border and clashing with the Eritrean army. He asserts that “the expansion of the escalation within Ethiopia carries repercussions that will cast a shadow on the Horn of Africa and the security of the southern Red Sea in general.”
It is also likely that this escalation will prompt international mediation intervention, and it is believed that “the one who has influence on the positions is the United States of America, especially in light of the African Union not having the strong influence to prevent the Horn of Africa region from being affected by this Ethiopian escalation.”
