Danish intelligence agency warns of 'low but growing' risk of limited military attacks by Russia against NATO members

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Lim Hwa-seop = Danish intelligence officials warned on the 24th (local time) that the risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member countries in the coming months is "low but growing."

The British daily Guardian explained that this is the most severe warning ever issued by Western intelligence agencies.

According to the Guardian, the Danish Defense Intelligence Agency, in a report released today, cited the possibility of Russia launching a long-range strike against NATO infrastructure used to support Ukraine and the possibility of infiltrating small, unmarked troops into countries bordering Russia to carry out operations, analyzing it as a "low but growing risk."

The report warned that Russia could intensify its hybrid attacks against European countries in the coming months, which could cause greater damage, including destructive cyberattacks that paralyze social functions and sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties.

A source familiar with the Russian leadership's judgment also said that Russia is likely to expand its hybrid attacks, adding, "The Russian military high command is convinced that some NATO countries are directly involved in the war against Russia, going beyond just providing weapons and intelligence to Ukraine and helping to guide missiles and drones."

“They believe that NATO is already waging a hybrid war against Russia and that Russia has the right to respond accordingly,” the source added.

‘Hybrid attack’ is an expression that refers to all non-military means aimed at putting pressure on a hostile country or creating instability, such as cyber attacks, sabotage, and the spread of false information.

The report added that the purpose of Russia's actions may be to divert European resources used to support Ukraine while deepening divisions within the alliance if NATO fails to agree on a joint response.

Danish intelligence officials said the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of a NATO member state by Russia remains "very low" but that the possibility "cannot be ruled out."

In addition, he warned that there is a possibility that Russia may try to test Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which stipulates the collective defense of NATO member countries, and that there is a “risk that Russia will assess that NATO countries will not respond collectively.”

Hours before this report was published, Polish authorities announced that a fire that broke out overnight at a Starlink satellite communications facility in Wolakrowowska, in the central Mazowieckie Voivodeship, was "suspected to be an act of sabotage."

This facility is used to provide satellite communications services to the Ukrainian military.

Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gaukowski said the fire that broke out overnight was "deliberately planned to disable the facility," and that several organizations, including the Ukrainian military, lost internet access at one point.

He said the identity of the arsonist had not been confirmed, but "many indications suggest this is consistent with Russia's new attack doctrine."

“Everything is operating normally now, but as Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently pointed out, we have to recognize that this is an element of hybrid warfare,” he said.

The incident comes amid a series of sabotages suspected to have been committed by Russia targeting European infrastructure supporting Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Germany publicly accused Russian intelligence agents of involvement in the drone bomb operation targeting Leipzig-Halle Airport.

In addition, suspicions of Russian involvement have been raised in other incidents, such as a drone factory fire and sabotage targeting railway infrastructure.

However, Russia denied the allegations.