Brazilian presidential election: Lula and Flavio to run-off election, Judge Moraes scandal in focus

[São Paulo Current Affairs] The counting of votes in Brazil's presidential election due to the expiration of his term of office is just a week away. It is a virtual head-to-head battle between the left-leaning incumbent Lula (80), who is seeking his fourth term in office, and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro (45), the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, with Flavio rapidly catching up with Lula ahead. However, no candidate is expected to receive a majority of votes, which is the requirement for winning, and the decision is likely to be postponed to a runoff election on October 25th.

According to a poll released on the 24th by the research firm Datafolia, Lula's approval rating is 40%, compared to 36% for Flavio. In the run-off, Lula's approval rating was 47% and Flavio's 45%. The gap in approval ratings, which was 10 points in mid-June, has narrowed due to the scandal surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court.

"Fire Lula! Fire Moraes!" Flavio, who held an election rally in Sao Paulo, the largest city, on Independence Day on the 7th of this month, repeated this in front of his enthusiastic supporters. Mr. Moraes is one of the Supreme Court justices. After the last presidential election, he was in charge of the trial in which the former president was sentenced to 27 years in prison on charges such as plotting a coup d'état, and he is Flavio's ``parental enemy.''

Suspicions have come to light that Mr. Moraes had a close relationship with a former banker who was imprisoned on suspicion of huge financial fraud. Moraes was reportedly questioned about the progress of the investigation and his means of evading arrest. Flavio used the scandal to criticize Lula, a man popular on the left as a "defender of democracy" but an enemy of the right.

Although Moraes is not a judge appointed by Lula, Flavio has called him "Lula's judge" because he supported the dismissal of Lula's corruption conviction in 2021. He is trying to unite the right wing by repeating at rallies, ``No one can stand Lula anymore. We can't stand Lula's judges who are ruining Brazil.''

On the other hand, Mr. Lula announced on the 17th of this month an increase in the Bolsa Familia, a cash benefit system for low-income groups that is his signature policy. They are also trying desperately to win the favor of left-wing voters and middle- and low-income groups, but they have been criticized for ``spreading things before the election,'' and there is a strong view that their support ratings have hit a plateau.

Both Mr. Lula and Mr. Flavio have been plagued by corruption allegations and are not perceived by voters as clean and clean. The disapproval rate for both candidates is close to 50%, and the election is now a ``fight between hated people.'' Professor Claudio Couto of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, an academic institution, points out, ``One of the major concerns for independents is corruption.'' "If a new scandal comes to light, the election situation could change by election day," the analysis said.