Maait: Egypt is able to maintain macroeconomic stability despite global challenges

Maait said that the IMF's latest assessment confirmed Egypt's ability to maintain macroeconomic stability despite the storm hitting the world and the region, noting that the main challenge during the next stage is to maintain this improvement and enhance the economy's ability to confront any new external shocks.

On September 21, the International Monetary Fund published a report entitled “Resisting Under Pressure: The Egyptian Economy Defies Expectations,” in which it confirmed that Egypt was able to absorb the repercussions of the regional shock better than expected, driven by the flexibility of the exchange rate, the response of economic policies, and the improvement of international reserves, in addition to the continued strength of growth, remittances, and tourism.

Maait explained that Egypt is at the same time facing challenges related to the fluctuations in external financing sources and their costs, especially with the change in global market conditions and interest rates, considering that maintaining and sustaining economic growth represents another challenge during the coming period.

He pointed out that the high cost of external financing could increase pressure on countries that rely heavily on international markets, pointing to the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.

According to Maait, Egypt is also required to deal with periodic financing maturities resulting from debts it has already obtained from the markets, including treasury bills and bonds, which makes debt management and refinancing maturities an essential element of financial policy in the coming years.

The IMF's latest estimates indicate that Egypt's total financing needs will remain within the range of 40% of GDP in the near term, before gradually declining to less than 30% by 2030, as this indicator includes the needs necessary to refinance existing debts and finance financial needs, and not IMF loans alone.

Maait stressed the importance of reducing this ratio by managing debt more efficiently, whether by lengthening average maturity dates or reducing the size of debt, in a way that reduces refinancing risks and the pressure resulting from high interest rates.

On the other hand, the IMF evaluation showed a tangible improvement in the performance of the Egyptian economy. It was stated that growth reached 5% in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/2026, while tourism continued to show a degree of resilience, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad recorded record levels, and Suez Canal activity began to gradually recover after the turmoil associated with regional tensions.

The Fund also noted Egypt's successful return to international capital markets with the issuance of $1 billion in “Euro” social bonds in May, followed by the issuance of $500 million in “Samurai” bonds in June, while Egypt’s sovereign risk premium fell by August to its lowest levels since 2014.

In July, the Executive Board of the IMF completed the seventh review of the “Extended Fund Facility” program and the second review within the framework of the “Resilience and Sustainability Facility,” which allowed Egypt to withdraw about $1.8 billion, bringing the total purchases and payments under the two programs to about $7.3 billion.