
Research released on the eve of the 1st round shows the scenario of the presidential dispute in São Paulo
AI-generated summary
Datafolha research released on the eve of the 1st round of the 2026 presidential elections in São Paulo, commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 or over between October 2nd and 3rd.
Datafolha for president in SP, valid votes: Flávio Bolsonaro, 45%; Lula, 39%; Curry, 5%; Whitewashed, 5%; Renan, 4%
Research released this Saturday (3) is the last before the 1st round, this Sunday (4), and was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo.
By Editorial g1 SP — São Paulo
Quaest in RO: Flávio Bolsonaro, 53%; Lula, 19%; Augusto Cury, 4%; Ronaldo Caiado, 3%; Renan Santos, 2% — Photo: Reproduction/personal collection
Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic is going in São Paulo.
Valid votes
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 45%
Lula (PT): 39%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 5%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 5%
Renan Santos (Mission): 4%
Samara Martins (UP): 1%
Romeu Zema (New): 1%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB)*: 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-05815/2026.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will go to the second round of elections in São Paulo
Very likely · Within days

Datafolha polls released this Saturday (3), the day before the vote, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead in the valid votes in the 1st round in São Paulo (45% x 39%), Rio de Janeiro (48% x 40%) and the Federal District (49% x 37%). Lula (PT) leads in Pernambuco with 65% x 26%. In Minas Gerais, the two are tied with 44% each. In the national survey, Lula has 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro 42%, in a technical tie. The margins of error vary between two and three percentage points depending on the state.

The president of the TSE, minister Kassio Nunes Marques, stated in a national statement that threats, harassment or attempts to interfere with the voter's will will be repressed in the first round of elections, this Sunday (4). He highlighted the security of electronic voting machines, provided guidance on necessary documents, banning cell phones in the booth and measures such as paper voting and the Your Vote Matters Program for vulnerable groups.

In the Brazilian elections on October 4, the atmosphere is one of discouragement and uncertainty due to the repetition of presidential options between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the Banco Master scandal, which involved R$60 billion in a pyramid scheme and affected authorities such as Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the STF, whose wife received R$131 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro, generating a loss of trust in institutions and calls for reform of the Judiciary and the Budget.

The University of Lisbon will receive 78,833 Brazilian voters on Sunday (4), making it the largest voting location outside Brazil. The number exceeds that of Boston, second place, by 25 thousand, and reflects the 74% increase in registered voters in Lisbon since 2022. Ambassador Alessandro Candeas explains that the community in Portugal remains more connected to Brazil, while the consulates in New York, Boston and Miami, although larger in terms of population served, have lower electoral engagement. Voting will take place in three university buildings using QR Codes and support staff to avoid queues like in 2022, when waiting times reached five hours. Militants of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro adopt different strategies, with PT members organizing demonstrations in Rossio and Bolsonaro supporters acting through videos and online events. The consulate estimates that between 700,000 and 1 million Brazilians live in Portugal, far beyond the 574,195 registered by INE.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ended the campaign for the first round of the presidential elections with a motorcade in the west zone of Rio de Janeiro, ending at Praça da Fé in Bangu, where the Catholic church closed its doors due to the noise of the political event with jingles and fireworks. The senator did not speak to the press and was accompanied by allies such as Douglas Ruas, PL candidate for governor of Rio. During the 13 km route between Campo Grande and Bangu, there were verbal confrontations with supporters of the PT candidate Adilson Pires, who called Flávio a 'thief', while Bolsonaro supporters responded to the provocations without physical aggression. Ruas said he hoped to win the state dispute against Eduardo Paes and criticized Lula, calling him an 'expired product', after the TSE annulled Anthony Garotinho's votes.

Twelve candidates are running for two seats in the Federal Senate for Pernambuco in the 2026 elections, with voting on October 4th. Pastor Gilvan Costa (Democrat) has a sub judice candidacy due to rejected registration, but can remain on the ballot while an appeal is pending. Voters must choose two different candidates using three-digit numbers in the electronic ballot box.