Datafolha for president in Piauí, valid votes: Lula, 66%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 25% — Photo: Montagem/g1
Datafolha polls released this Saturday (3), the day before the vote, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead in valid votes in the 1st round in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and the Federal District. Lula (PT) leads in Pernambuco. In Minas Gerais, the two are tied, with 44% each.
SP, MG and RJ are the states with the largest numbers of voters eligible to vote. The surveys were commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. In the general survey, Datafolha shows Lula (45%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (42%) in a technical tie.
🔍 What are valid votes? This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote. Click here to find out more.
What the 1st round polls show in the states surveyed:
São Paulo: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads with 45%, against 39% for Lula (PT).
Rio de Janeiro: Flávio is ahead, with 48% of the valid votes, and Lula, with 40%.
Minas Gerais: both Lula and Flávio have 44% of voting intentions.
Pernambuco: Lula leads with 65% of voting intentions, against 26% for Flávio.
Federal District: Flávio leads with 49%, and Lula has 37%.
The margins of error are two percentage points, plus or minus, in the São Paulo survey, and three percentage points in the other states.
See the numbers for president in the states:
SÃO PAULO
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 45%
Lula (PT): 39%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 5%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 5%
Renan Santos (Mission): 4%
Samara Martins (UP): 1%
Romeu Zema (New): 1%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-05815/2026.
RIO DE JANEIRO
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 48%
Lula (PT): 40%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 4%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%
Renan Santos (Mission): 3%
Romeu Zema (New): 1%
Samara Martins (UP): 0%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): had not been mentioned
2,002 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The research was contracted by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and registered with the Electoral Court under number RJ-01334/2026.
MINAS GERAIS
Lula (PT): 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 44%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3%
Renan Santos (Mission): 3%
Romeu Zema (New): 3%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Samara Martins (UP): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%
2,003 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The research was contracted by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-07919/2026.
PERNAMBUCO
Lula (PT): 65%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 26%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%
Renan Santos (Mission): 2%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 2%
Romeu Zema (New): 0%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
Samara Martins (UP): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): had not been mentioned
The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and interviewed 1,650 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is TWO percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under numbers PE-02404/2026 and BR-03462/2026.
FEDERAL DISTRICT
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 49%
Lula (PT): 37%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 6%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 3%
Renan Santos (Mission): 3%
Samara Martins (UP): 1%
Romeu Zema (New): 1%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%
The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S. Paulo and interviewed 1,620 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under numbers DF-07243/2026 and BR-09812/2026.
