Datafolha for the Senate in Piauí, valid votes: Marcelo Castro; Ciro Nogueira; Julius Caesar; Tiago Junqueira — Photo: Montagem/g1
Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Piauí. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. The dispute remains fierce with the three leaders in the survey, Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Júlio César (PSD), technically tied.
Spontaneous search
First, Datafolha asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 50% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Marcelo Castro (MDB): 28%
Ciro Nogueira (PP): 26%
Júlio César (PSD): 25%
Tiago Junqueira (PL): 9%
Maria Madalena (PSOL): 1%
Jorge Lopes (PSDB): 1%
Major Paulo Roberto (Mobiliza): 1%
Danniel Rocha (PSTU): 1%
Antônio José Lira (Avante): 1%
Antônio Barros (New): 1%
Pedro Laurentino (UP): 1%
Francinaldo Leão (PSOL): 1%
Dionisio Carvalho (DC): 1%
Brother Evandro Marques (DC): 1%
Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat): 0%
Cloves José (PCO): 0%
Missionary Evandro Craveiro (Democrat): 0%
What are valid votes?
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Marcelo Castro (MDB): 19% (it was 17% in the previous survey)
Ciro Nogueira (PP): 18% (was 17%)
Júlio César (PSD): 17% (was 15%)
Tiago Junqueira (PL): 6% (was 4%)
Maria Madalena (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Jorge Lopes (PSDB): 1% (was 1%)
Major Paulo Roberto (Mobiliza): 1% (was 2%)
Danniel Rocha (PSTU): 1% (was 1%)
Antônio José Lira (Avante): 1% (was 1%)
Antônio Barros (New): 1% (was 1%)
Pedro Laurentino (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Francinaldo Leão (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Dionisio Carvalho (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Brother Evandro Marques (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Toinho Dufrango (Mobiliza): 0% (was 0%)
Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Cloves José (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Missionary Evandro Craveiro (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 20% (was 17%)
Blank/null/none: 14% (was 18%)
Vote for 1st place
Ciro Nogueira (PP): 22% (was 24%)
Marcelo Castro (MDB): 22% (was 19%)
Júlio César (PSD): 17% (was 14%)
Tiago Junqueira (PL): 6% (was 5%)
Maria Madalena (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Jorge Lopes (PSDB): 1% (was 1%)
Major Paulo Roberto (Mobiliza): 1% (was 2%)
Pedro Laurentino (UP): 1% (was 0%)
Danniel Rocha (PSTU): 1% (was 1%)
Antônio Barros (New): 0% (was 0%)
Francinaldo Leão (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Cloves José (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Antônio José Lira (Avante): 0% (was 1%)
Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Brother Evandro Marques (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Dionisio Carvalho (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Toinho Dufrango (Mobiliza): 0% (Candidate encouraged, but was not mentioned in the previous round)
Missionary Evandro Craveiro (Democrat): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 15% (was 14%)
Blank/null/none: 11% (was 15%)
Vote for 2nd place
Júlio César (PSD): 16% (was 16%)
Marcelo Castro (MDB): 16% (was 15%)
Ciro Nogueira (PP): 13% (was 12%)
Tiago Junqueira (PL): 6% (was 4%)
Maria Madalena (PSOL): 1% (was 0%)
Antônio José Lira (Avante): 1% (was 1%)
Jorge Lopes (PSDB): 1% (was 1%)
Danniel Rocha (PSTU): 1% (was 0%)
Major Paulo Roberto (Mobiliza): 1% (was 1%)
Dionisio Carvalho (DC): 1% (was 1%)
Antônio Barros (New): 1% (was 1%)
Brother Evandro Marques (DC): 1% (was 1%)
Francinaldo Leão (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)
Toinho Dufrango (Mobiliza): 1% (was 1%)
Pedro Laurentino (UP): 0% (was 2%)
Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat): 0% (was 1%)
Cloves José (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Missionary Evandro Craveiro (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Undecided: 25% (was 20%)
Blank/null/none: 16% (was 21%)
Spontaneous search
Marcelo Castro (MDB): 13% (it was 10% in the previous survey)
Ciro Nogueira (PP): 10% (was 7%)
Júlio César (PSD): 9% (was 6%)
Tiago Junqueira (PL): 3% (was 2%)
Undecided: 50% (was 64%)
Blank/null/none: 8% (was 6%)
The survey was commissioned by TV Clube and interviewed 1,564 voters aged 16 or over, between the 1st and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number PI-05565/2026.
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