Given the high oil prices, the stock market is not making any progress. At least the DAX was able to completely make up for its daily loss by the end of trading and closed practically unchanged at 26,007 points. Yesterday, the leading German index closed 0.15 percent lower at 26,006 points.
High oil and gas prices continue to weigh on sentiment. The price of North Sea Brent rose to its highest level since early June, reaching almost $100 a barrel in the morning. By late afternoon it was still almost $98.
Traders justified the further increase, among other things, with attacks by the Yemeni Houthi militia on Saudi Arabia. The largest oil-producing country in the Gulf region then stopped production at some facilities near the border with Yemen. The ongoing conflict is keeping inflation concerns alive, wrote Jürgen Molnar from the Robomarkets trading company. This should ensure that higher interest rates are priced in for a longer period of time. “The price of oil remains the thermometer of the stock markets,” said the market expert.
The US stock markets also started the day weaker after their holiday break. The Dow Jones lost around one percent by late afternoon. Trade policy is also a burden: Canadian counter-tariffs came into force today in the trade dispute with Canada.
There were different signals from the economic side. In July, German exports fell after five months of increases. They fell by 0.8 percent compared to the previous month, as figures from the Federal Statistical Office show.
This is further bad news for the economy, which has recently been on the road to recovery: It was announced last week that German companies surprisingly cut back their production more in July than they had in almost a year.
However, there was once again good news from the electrical and digital industries. In July, their order intake was 32.6 percent higher than the previous year, reported the industry association ZVEI. In the year to date, incoming orders are 12.6 percent higher than from January to July 2025. At the same time, the ifo Institute reported that the mood in the industry is currently better than it has been in over three years. The barometer for the business climate rose to 16.0 points in August, after 10.0 points in July.
The fact that Germany's mechanical and plant manufacturers are increasingly shifting their research activities abroad also caused discussions. 43 percent already organize research and development outside of Germany, according to a survey by the industry association VDMA among 400 member companies.
The majority of these companies want to significantly expand their foreign share of research and development in the next few years. This development is "a clear alarm signal for Germany as an industrial location - also because with 190,000 engineers we are the most important value creation partner for new products and processes in the economy," says VDMA deputy general manager Hartmut Rauen.
The high oil prices mean that the major central banks will soon raise interest rates. The financial markets have already prepared for the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase the deposit rate, which is important for controlling the monetary policy course, by a quarter point to 2.50 percent on Thursday.
It is unclear whether the US Federal Reserve will follow suit in the fight against high inflation, but it is likely. Traders are currently pricing in a good 60 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates next week.
The good news from the electrical and digital sectors did not help Infineon's shares today. After a downgrade by Morgan Stanley, the share slipped to the bottom of the DAX.
Fresenius, however, was on the winning side. The Swiss UBS attests that the shares of the healthcare group still have considerable upward potential. Analyst Graham Doyle believes the concerns about US business with the important biosimilar Tyenne are completely exaggerated.
