On the German stock market, the DAX did not move overall last week. However, the price fluctuations in the meantime were enormous. On Thursday, the leading index was still up 3.4 percent and reached a record, but gave up all of its gains by the weekend.
The change in mood in the USA was triggered by the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections. This could lead to greater regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). As a result, the market-wide US index S&P 500 lost almost three percent over the week, and the technology index Nasdaq 100 even lost almost five percent.
The reduced risk appetite also affected the German market. However, the mood of domestic investors has hardly changed, as shown by the results of the Handelsblatt Dax sentiment survey: Buying interest remains high, but hedging is low.
To assess DAX sentiment, Handelsblatt surveys more than 10,000 private investors every Friday morning to Saturday evening about their current market assessment. Stephan Heibel, managing director of the analysis company AnimusX, evaluates the answers and supplements them with further indicators.
The current result shows that survey participants are largely unimpressed by the recent price fluctuations. Investor sentiment (sentiment) falls from 21.6 points in the previous week to 17.8 points. “This is still a little above the usual: good mood without exuberance,” says Heibel.
Nevertheless, uncertainty arises. Complacency drops from 1.61 to 1.50 points. Negative extreme values start at around 1.4 points. It is measured by survey participants indicating whether their expectations were met in the previous week. The less this is the case, the greater the uncertainty.
However, future expectations rise from 12.1 to 15.8 points. Extreme values start a little later at 19 points. Future expectations are measured by survey participants indicating what market phase they expect in three months.
“Falling prices, increasing confidence: that is the usual reversal reflex,” says Heibel.
In line with this, the willingness to buy also increases from 55.4 to 60.4 points. This is the highest value since the customs dispute in April 2025. This means that the willingness to buy is in the positive extreme range, starting at 59 points.
The survey results are therefore approaching a warning signal for euphoria. It is triggered when both future expectations and willingness to buy are in the extreme range. According to sentiment theory, euphoria is considered dangerous because euphoric investors are already invested and there may be a lack of buyers who can move prices further up.
There have been extremely high future expectations and willingness to buy in eleven phases in the history of DAX sentiment. They preceded the end of an away trend significantly more often than other weeks.
He is more concerned about investors' low levels of hedging, which he measured in a separate survey of AnimusX customers. “If the AI sell-off spreads to the German market, there will be no safety net,” warns Heibel. The former bargain hunters who want to buy at lower prices could then quickly become sellers who reinforce the downward trend.
However, Heibel currently sees no danger of euphoria among investors: "The complacency shows uncertainty, not carelessness. So I wouldn't derive a clear warning signal from this."
Heibel therefore advises caution: “I would only share our participants’ desire to buy with caution and focus on quality over quantity: if I buy, then companies that can support their investments from their cash flow.” However, investors should have good nerves and a long time horizon so that they can ride out any price setbacks.
