DAX gets off to an easier start – crisis signals from the global bond market

The DAX starts trading with a loss of 0.1 percent to 26,058 points. On Wednesday, the leading German index was barely changed at 26,091 points. It reached its record high of 26,573 points the previous week. The stock market barometer is currently struggling again with the 26,000 point mark. “The correction is probably not over yet, despite possible short-term recoveries,” writes ING expert Christian Zoller in his daily commentary.

Crisis signals are currently coming from the bond market. Experts see a growing risk of a major global sovereign debt crisis. In the USA, yields on 30-year US bonds had climbed to their highest level since 2007, and they also rose significantly in Japan and Germany. The US Treasury Department had therefore announced that it would double the repurchases of long-term government bonds. In doing so, it wants to counteract the recent sell-off.

"By doubling the repurchase volume for long-term bonds, the US Treasury Secretary has calmed the bond markets, at least for the time being," said Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. “However, only the future will show whether this calm will last.”

Rising yields indicate expectations of rising interest rates for government and corporate bonds on the bond market. For the stock market, rising interest rates mean that fixed-interest securities become more attractive for investors. Investments could be shifted from the stock market to the bond market.

Overall, the so-called term premium, i.e. the additional return that investors would demand for holding long-term bonds, is increasing, says Ulrich Stephanm, chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers at Deutsche Bank. “This makes the state’s refinancing costs more expensive.”

This situation occurs precisely in times of rising national debt. In the USA it has now exceeded the $40 trillion mark for the first time. And the pace is accelerating: The record was set just five months after reaching the $39 trillion mark. That is why monetary policy is currently becoming increasingly important. The Iran war and rising energy prices have led to a rise in inflation worldwide. In order to dampen this development, the central banks would have to increase the key interest rate.

However, the consequence of rising interest rates is that states would have to spend an ever larger proportion of their budgets on interest payments as debt increases. However, savings would have to be made elsewhere. The consequences are also serious for consumers: loan costs for mortgages, cars or other purchases are driven up. And the prices of goods and services are also rising.

Current economic data did not provide any positive stimulus: German exports rose by almost four percent in the first half of the year compared to the previous year. Germany exported goods worth 818 billion euros. China remains the most important trading partner. But the numbers also show that imports from China continue to grow: the import surplus in the first half of 2025 was still around 41 billion euros. There are now almost 53 billion.

In addition, the producer prices for the month of July were due. They have increased more than they have in over three years. Producer prices are prices that companies have to pay at the producer level. For example, higher energy or material costs have an impact here.

They are a forewarning of the future development of inflation. Because with a time lag, higher producer prices also reach the end consumer.