Why are Chinese experts calling the Iran deal a defeat for America and a victory for their country?

Chinese experts have warned that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement should not be presented as a big step towards permanent peace. He says that there are still major differences between the two countries on issues like Iran's nuclear program and Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

However, commentators also say that China's "peaceful approach" model and energy security strategy are gaining more international recognition. According to him, this conflict has also weakened America's ability to oppose Taiwan.

Although the Chinese government has welcomed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran, Chinese analysts have taken a more cautious stance regarding the prospects for negotiations.

They see China as the emerging winner in this entire incident.

Negotiations likely to drag on for a long time

In an article written in the Chinese newspaper Global Times on June 15, Wang Jin advised adopting a "cautious approach" to the US-Iran agreement. Wang is a professor at North-West University of China.

He said that differences remain between the two sides on issues like the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program and Israel's ongoing military action in Lebanon. For this reason this agreement is still surrounded by uncertainties and instability.

Writing on the semi-official news platform Guanchu on June 16, influential commentator Chairman Rabbit said the 60-day deadline for further negotiations was too short.

He compared it to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), for which negotiations lasted for about 20 months during the tenure of the then US President Barack Obama.

Many European countries including America were also involved in the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) signed in 2015. Under this agreement, in exchange for limiting Iran's nuclear enrichment program, some relaxation was to be given in the economic sanctions imposed on it.

Donald Trump had announced his withdrawal from this agreement in his first term in 2018.

Rabbitt feared that further talks could drag on indefinitely. Due to this, America and Iran may get trapped in a situation where there will be neither complete peace nor war. During this time the talks will not end completely and no concrete results will be achieved.

What did China learn?

On June 16, nationalist commentator and Fudan University professor Shen Yi said that it would be a mistake to call the MoU a "historic peace."

Shen Yi said that the agreement does not address deep issues such as the nuclear program, US sanctions, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the long-standing mistrust between the US and Iran.

However, he also said that even if the agreement did not lead to any "strategic victory", it could help the United States temporarily reduce the pressure related to war and energy supplies. This will give it an opportunity to explore new options at the diplomatic level for a limited time.

Shen Yi also believes that Iran may have to face many challenges after the war. These include strengthening domestic governance and establishing coordination between various political and social factions.

From China's point of view, Shen Yi said that China has learned a lesson from this crisis that diplomatic efforts can give better results than military force.

He says that China can play a positive role in creating a common framework for regional security, rather than relying on exclusive or limited military alliances.

Hu Shijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, wrote on the social media platform Sheena Weibo on June 15, "This war has once again proved China's peaceful model correct."

'America has become weak regarding Taiwan'

According to Hu Xijin, the Iran war put enormous pressure on America's resources, while China maintained its pace of stable and peaceful development.

He said that China has been reaching new levels of development every few years and has now become the country with the most extensive supply chain in the world. Besides, it has achieved the position of world leader in many fields.

Hu claimed that America's "defeat" in the Iran war had also significantly weakened its overall deterrence capability in the Taiwan Strait.

He said that if America could not achieve decisive success in a war against a middle power country, then it is possible that it may have almost given up the option of high-level military intervention regarding Taiwan against a big power like China.

Hu said this notion is gradually becoming accepted in US strategic and media circles, even if it is not publicly acknowledged.

Apart from this, Hu Xijin also praised China's energy security strategy.

He said that oil supply from different sources, large-scale strategic reserves, development of new energy technologies, expansion of electric vehicle industry and rapid increase in the economy's dependence on electricity have given China special strength.