The Economist: The United States and Taiwan promote the "Hell Scene" concept and use a large number of unmanned vehicles to deter China from attacking

The Thunder Tiger unmanned boat was publicly demonstrated in Dapeng Bay at the end of July this year; The Economist reported that the United States and Taiwan are advancing the "hell scenario" concept of using a large number of maritime unmanned vehicles to raise the threshold of Taiwan Strait defense.

After the massive investment in unmanned vehicles, a new firepower threshold may appear for Taiwan Strait offense and defense. The British "Economist" reported on the 15th that the Taiwanese and American militaries are continuing to promote the "Hellscape" concept, using a large number of air, surface and underwater unmanned vehicles to slow down China's offensive actions. The report pointed out that the US strategic community has re-evaluated the war in recent years and believes that the firepower advantage required by the attacker may no longer be the traditional 3 times, but 20 to 30 times.

This concept was originally proposed during the Biden administration in the United States. The core is to deploy a large number of low-cost unmanned vehicles to the Taiwan Strait to attack China's invading forces through air, surface and underwater platforms. Even if communication links are interfered with, unmanned vehicles can still use inertial navigation, image recognition and onboard artificial intelligence (AI) to identify targets, avoid countermeasures, and coordinate attacks with other unmanned vehicles. However, "The Economist" pointed out that the purpose of this strategy is not to prevent the invasion alone, but to increase the cost of the attack, slow down the speed, and buy time for the US military's naval and air forces.

"The Economist" pointed out that the U.S. strategic community has long believed that the attacker needs about three times the firepower advantage of the defender to win; now it has been reassessed based on the experience of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and it is believed that the attacker may need 20 to 30 times the firepower advantage. Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), also said in a speech in Taipei on the 9th that the status of unmanned systems on the contemporary battlefield is like the machine guns of World War I and the tanks of World War II. It is a key technology that can change the battlefield.

They have tactics but lack production capacity. The United States and Taiwan are stuck at manufacturing bottlenecks.

However, The Economist pointed out that whether this concept can be implemented, the real question is not just the tactics, but whether the United States and Taiwan can provide enough drones and missiles. The United States has expanded its low-cost drone program in recent years and even completed the reverse engineering of Iran's aerial attack drones. The Pentagon plans to purchase 200,000 low-cost drones by 2027; however, testing backlogs and shortages of non-Chinese components are still slowing down progress.

The production scale of maritime unmanned vehicles is also limited. Some U.S. unmanned systems originally designed for the Taiwan Strait war have been used in the U.S.-Iraq war. The U.S. military also tested Ukrainian suicide drones in the Philippines in April this year. However, Michael Horowitz, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has been involved in the Biden administration's drone policy, pointed out that most systems are still experimental in nature and actual production numbers are limited. Researchers also emphasized that unmanned vehicles cannot replace large weapons such as fighter planes and warships, but are used to consume interception munitions and weaken invading ships.

Taiwan also faces production capacity and resource issues. The Economist pointed out that Taiwan plans to purchase 208,200 attack drones of various types, 1,446 coastal surveillance drones, and 1,320 small suicide drones by 2032; related plans have been delayed due to funding disputes. The report quoted Chen Binghui, a professor at the Department of Mechanical Engineering at National Taiwan University, as saying that manpower and funds are still insufficient. He even estimated that Taiwan needs 4 million drones and 10,000 maritime unmanned vehicles.

On the other hand, China still has advantages in the number and production capacity of drones. It also continues to study its battlefield experience in Ukraine and the Middle East and conducts drone and anti-drone training. "The Economist" also pointed out that Xi Jinping's internal purge of the People's Liberation Army has made it more difficult for the military to achieve the goal of having the ability to carry out invasions by 2027. Some Chinese military experts also believe that facing a "hell scenario", the People's Liberation Army may need to update its combat plans and strengthen its anti-drone capabilities.

"The Economist" finally pointed out that supporters of the "hell scenario" do not believe that this tactics can guarantee the defeat of China; its purpose is to make Beijing believe that once it chooses to use force, it will be difficult to achieve the quick victory and low-cost victory it originally expected.