DDR4 and DDR5 RAM Price Increase Continues: Shortage Could Last Until 2029
According to Barclays and Citi reports, supply shortages and price increases in the memory market continue to affect the technology world.
Quick Look
- According to Barclays and Citi reports, while the increase in DDR4 and DDR5 RAM prices continues, it is predicted that the supply shortage in the memory market may continue until 2029.
- The focus on HBM production restricts the supply of NAND and DRAM.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
High demand for AI-focused HBM memories is shrinking standard DRAM and NAND production capacity.
DDR4 and DDR5 RAM price increases are not slowing down. According to a Barclays report, the memory shortage could last until 2029. Here is the latest situation in the market.
DDR4 DDR5 RAM price increase marks a new era in the technology world. The latest report prepared by Barclays reveals that the supply shortage in the memory market may continue until 2029.
Data from the investment bank shows that memory prices are in a strong upward trend in 2026. This situation directly affects both contract prices and spot market values.
Price Movement in the Memory Market
Spot prices of DDR5 memory increased by 8 percent on a monthly basis in October. New customer agreements now directly follow market dynamics rather than fixed price ranges.
Contract prices of DDR4 memories increased by 24 percent in the last three months, surpassing DDR5. DDR5 prices increased by 20 percent in the same period.
To manage the shortage, chip designers resort to de-speccing, a method known as reducing technical specifications. Barclays states that it is necessary to closely monitor whether this strategy will become a long-term trend.
This method is mainly used as a temporary solution to overcome bottlenecks in the supply chain. However, industry analysts warn that the impact on hardware standards could be permanent.
The data in question includes a comprehensive market analysis covering both contract and spot prices. Barclays states that predictability in the memory chip business has increased thanks to long-term agreements.
Supply Shortage and Future Expectations
A separate analysis by Citi predicts that the supply gap in the DRAM and NAND markets will persist until 2028. The supply shortage in the DRAM market is expected to peak in the fourth quarter of 2027.
It is estimated that the supply shortage in NAND chips will peak in the first quarter of 2028. These data show that memory manufacturers will face a difficult process in the coming years.
The dependence of AI-driven high-bandwidth memories (HBM) on DRAM chips is causing manufacturers to focus on DRAM production rather than NAND. This situation creates an additional supply contraction in the NAND market.
The fact that companies like Tesla reduce and then increase the memory capacity in AI5 chips shows how sensitive capacity management is in the industry. Data from investment banks indicate that costs in the hardware world will remain high in the coming period.
Citi's supply-demand ratio clearly reveals the tension in the market by measuring how much demand exceeds supply. This contraction in the sector directly affects both individual users and large-scale technology manufacturers.
How do you think these memory shortages and price increases affect your plans for building new systems?
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
DRAM supply shortage will peak in Q4 2027.
Possible · Within years
Open Questions
- How will de-speccing permanently change hardware standards?
