The red-greens look set to win with 176 seats

For a long time it was even. But by lunchtime on Thursday, when a few votes in electoral districts remain, Sweden looks set to have a result. The red-green parties get a majority and land on 176 seats, against the Tidö parties' 173.

Voter turnout is 84.4 percent, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the last election.

Already on Wednesday evening, SVT's forecast determined that Magdalena Andersson's block would take home the victory with a 99.9 percent probability. DN's analysis also shows that the opposition has so far benefited somewhat in the final vote count and in the count in the assembly districts. Even in the last election, the opposition parties got slightly higher election results in the remaining districts than the Tidö parties.

The forecast comes after a Wednesday with so-called mandate ping-pong. Mandates jumped between the Social Democrats, the Left Party and the Moderates. At one point, a mandate switched seven times between S and SD, then went from S to M and then to V.

- The mandate changed sides when there was a difference of less than 30,000 votes. It didn't go back and forth in the same way after that, says Erik Wångmar, political scientist at Linnaeus University.

He highlights two contributing factors to the red-green profit. One concerns the fact that the Social Democrats managed to collect a clear majority in the parliamentary elections in the city of Stockholm. The second is that the Left Party and to some extent the Social Democrats have been successful in attracting voters in vulnerable areas, as a review by DN also showed.

- The Left Party has conducted a very active campaign, obviously, to get people to vote. It certainly contributes to the party making such a good choice. Then there are probably fewer people in these marginalized areas who are bothered by the fact that some candidates have Islamist lines of thought. Maybe some of the voters have sympathies for such views, says Erik Wångmar, referring to Expressen's review of anti-Semitic statements among candidates within V.

After the red-green win, it now falls to Magdalena Andersson to try to form a government. And it won't be easy. The leader of the Social Democrats must navigate the Center Party's red line against the Left Party, as well as the Left Party's statement that it does not intend to stand behind a government that the party is not in.

If Andersson were to fail and it goes all the way to by-elections, it would not end well for the bloc, believes Erik Wångmar.

- It would be particularly obvious for a Tidö victory if the red-greens fail to form a government, he says.

Before a government can be formed, however, a speaker must be elected. There it could be a tie between the Social Democrats' candidate for first speaker and the Moderates' candidate, who is likely to be the sitting speaker, Andreas Norlén.

That, too, is an important role.

- Now the speaker is supposed to be a non-political role, but you cannot completely rule out that a social democratic speaker would give Magdalena Andersson more time to form a government, before going to the prime ministerial vote, says Erik Wångmar.