The opposition is expected to win the election with a 99.9 percent probability according to SVT's forecast
Quick Look
According to SVT's election forecast, the opposition has a 99.9 percent probability of winning the distribution of mandates, but experts warn of difficulties in forming a government and the risk of new elections despite a likely victory.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The election has led to an even distribution of mandates between the opposition and the Tidö parties, where small differences can determine the formation of a government.
During Wednesday evening, a mandate jumped back and forth between the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats. According to SVT's election forecast, the opposition will claim victory with a 99.9 percent probability. A forecast that political scientists Erik Wångmar and Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson vouch for.
- Now the question is whether it will be 176-173 or 175-174, says Erik Wångmar about the distribution of the mandates.
Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science at Gothenburg University, has drawn the same conclusion.
- It would require something completely extra, says Ekengren Oscarsson about Tidö's chance to catch up.
Despite the fact that the opposition will most likely take home the most seats, it is nothing to celebrate, says Erik Wångmar.
- It is in view of the difficulties the opposition will have in getting a government together, he says.
At the same time, the Center Party's dream of a central government does not seem to be coming true.
- That S, C and KD could enter a government, it doesn't work because they can't get a majority together. It is another reason for S and C not to celebrate so violently, explains Erik Wångmar.
With the Center Party's red line against the Left Party, and Nooshi Dadgostar's statement that V will not stand behind a government in which they themselves sit, there is a risk of re-election, Wångmar believes.
- In 2014, it was close. Löfven intended to call one, but I don't think there will be a new election. But you certainly can't rule it out anyway.
But pushing the whole thing to new elections would mean a win for the Tidö parties, says Erik Wångmar.
- If the red-greens do not get a government together and there are new elections, it is a huge failure and, considering how tight it is now, it is almost a guarantee that Tidö would win. They have much higher credibility to form a government. If I were red-green, I would really avoid a new election.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
There will be no government formation for the opposition and a new election will be called
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Will the opposition be able to form a stable government?
- Will there be a new election if the government negotiations fail?
- Which parties will form part of a possible government?
