repeated in Moscow; Often these days, there is a phrase that “Armenia is approaching the moment of truth.”
The small former Soviet republic is facing a difficult choice, as it is trying to determine its future paths, after major shocks it has been exposed to, and successive military and political defeats, since the “Third Karabakh War” in 2023. It seems that the Kremlin; He who escalated his tone in warning Yerevan against adopting “wrong choices” by getting closer to Europe and engaging in paths that place the poorest Caucasian country on the list of “enemies” is also preparing its options and preparing to deal with the worst scenarios.
A break
Russian-Armenian relations, which in the years following the disintegration of the Soviet state were always described as very close and close to being a solid alliance at the military, security and economic levels, have witnessed a continuous decline since the arrival of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to power in 2018. Not only that he came to succeed the pro-Moscow government following a popular revolution against corruption, but from the beginning he raised slogans of rapprochement with the “European Union” and “diversification.” Options. His policy led the country to pay a heavy price when Moscow delayed intervening to stop the “Second Karabakh War of 2020” and relieve pressure on Yerevan... Then it sponsored a fragile ceasefire that soon collapsed three years later, when Armenia suffered a bitter defeat following a lightning Azeri military operation that enabled Baku, with Turkish assistance, to regain control over Karabakh and impose a humiliating settlement on Yerevan.
Since that time, with the escalation of “disappointment” in Armenia regarding relations with Moscow, the process of strengthening contacts with the “European Union” took an accelerated turn, coinciding with the expansion of relations with the United States, which later sponsored a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan that allowed for the first time in history a direct military presence of the United States in the South Caucasus region. But the greatest deterioration in relations has escalated in recent months, especially since the path of rapprochement with Europe has witnessed internal developments in Armenia, which culminated last February in the local parliament approving a draft law to begin procedures for joining the European Union.
The holding of the first European-Armenian summit at the beginning of the month in Yerevan exacerbated the situation. For Moscow, what was worse than the presence of 27 European leaders and holding multiple meetings and events was that the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, was invited to participate in two important levels of meetings. The first was the “European Political Group” meeting, and the second was the “Armenian-European Summit.” Zelensky attended both events and made violent statements against Moscow from the heart of the Armenian capital that greatly angered the Kremlin. The Russian presidency criticized Pashinyan's failure to rush to "balance" Zelensky's speech against Russia. Analysts described the event in Yerevan as an official announcement of the final divorce between Moscow and Yerevan and the launch of the process of Armenia joining the European Union.
The Kremlin warns
The Kremlin did not delay in issuing a strong warning to Yerevan of the danger of this path and its repercussions on the relationship with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent the first strong signal in this regard when he informed the Armenian Prime Minister, who had visited Moscow last April, that Armenia must choose either integration with Europe or continuing rapprochement with Russia. He believed that Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union could not continue if it concluded any partnership agreements with Europe.
The threat was very clear and direct. Although Armenia avoided declaring a position towards him, and Pashinyan contented himself with confirming that he would resort to a popular referendum to determine his country’s next path, his intention not to participate in the “Victory Day” celebrations over Nazism alongside some leaders of the former Soviet republics constituted, according to analysts, an indirect message about the nature of the Armenian choice, in addition to the fact that he received European leaders specifically at a time when Moscow was completing its preparations for the celebrations.
Losses for Armenia
On Monday, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov renewed the warning that Yerevan’s accession to the European Union would lead to the loss of “favorable terms of cooperation with Moscow.” The spokesman hinted at the benefits that Armenia gains from its relations with Moscow. Including in terms of granting preferential prices for gas and oil. What is new in the Russian tone is the suggestion that Moscow has supporters inside Armenia. Peskov spoke about the presence of “political forces in Armenia that support the Russian development orientation and integration processes that include Russia.” It is noteworthy that Peskov's speech came one day before the arrival of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Armenia on a visit during which he will meet his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan. Russian circles expected that the visit would include “anti-Russian statements.”
A few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that “there are attempts to drag Armenia into the anti-Russian camp with the aim of harming it as much as possible.” Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, also stated that Russia's patience is running out.
Experts monitored the potential losses to Armenia as a result of this step if it is completed, especially in the areas of agriculture, manufacturing industries, immigration, and customs duties. This showed that Moscow sells gas to Armenia at a price of $177.50 per thousand cubic metres. While the Europeans buy Russian gas at a price of $600 per thousand cubic metres. Among the economic successes that Moscow believes it helped Yerevan achieve is that since Armenia joined the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, Armenia's per capita GDP has increased from $3,850 to $8,500 in 2024. The volume of trade exchange with Russia reached its peak in 2024, recording $11.7 billion. By 2025, it has fallen to $6.4 billion. While the volume of Armenia's trade exchange with the European Union during the period from January to November 2025 amounted to $2.23 billion.
Ukraine scenario
In addition to calculations of economic profit and loss, Russian warnings to Armenia carried more sensitive dimensions and more dangerous hints. Russian circles believe that Armenia's rapid rapprochement with the European Union puts it in the category of "enemies." “(The European Union) explicitly declares its readiness for war with Russia, so; Indulgence with the enemy is seen very clearly here.” As a political analyst close to the Kremlin recently wrote. Also, in light of the new complexities in the world, the South Caucasus is acquiring a unique role, especially at the crossroads of the north, south, east and west. This explains Yerevan's desire to diversify options and try to gain benefits, but at the same time, it constitutes a weapon that strongly threatens Moscow, which fears more than ever the rapid decline of its influence in the South Caucasus region. This prompted experts and politicians in Russia to note that Moscow will not stand idly by, and that “Armenia is committing the same mistakes that Ukraine committed, and the consequences may be harsh.” Bogdan Bezbalko, a political scientist and member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told Novosti Agency, “Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his allies risk losing their country’s independence by trying to reorient themselves towards the West.” He believed that “it is difficult to predict the future consequences for Armenia, but if it withdraws from the Organization (Collective Security Treaty and the Eurasian Economic Union), or tries to join any European unions, organizations or projects, it will undoubtedly lose part of its gross domestic product and sovereignty.” This is a clear and direct signal. On the other hand, some analysts say that Armenia may be like Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan that have transcended the idea of submitting to their “big brother,” and that the effect of “nostalgia for the Soviet Union” has been exhausted, and that “generations who grew up in countries neighboring Russia never knew the Soviet Union, and for them, this concept has become strange.”
Germany is witnessing a noticeable increase in espionage cases linked to foreign powers, in light of increasing security concerns regarding attempts to penetrate scientific, military and political institutions. In the latest of these cases, the German authorities in Munich arrested a couple with German citizenship on suspicion of collaborating with a Chinese intelligence service, according to a report by the French newspaper Le Figaro.
Investigations indicate that the two suspects worked to build a network of relationships with German researchers and scientists specializing in sensitive fields, including aviation, computer science, and artificial intelligence. They are also suspected of luring some of these researchers to China through paid invitations to participate in conferences that were said to be civilian, before it became clear that their attendance included representatives of Chinese government arms companies.
The case reflects growing concerns in Berlin about protecting scientific research and advanced technology from attempts at acquisition or illicit transfer abroad, while at the same time ensuring not to restrict freedom of scientific research and international academic cooperation.
Previous Chinese cases
This is not the first incident of its kind. In September 2025, German-Chinese Jian Guo, a former aide to far-right lawmaker Maximilian Krah, was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison after being convicted of spying for Beijing. Suspicions also included his involvement in investigations related to corruption and money laundering against the backdrop of relations with China.
In another case, a former civilian employee at a US military base inside Germany was sentenced to prison after attempting to hand over sensitive military information to Chinese intelligence services.
Increased Russian activity
In parallel with the China-related cases, Germany is facing a rising wave of espionage cases attributed to Russia. In recent months, a number of German citizens of Russian origin have been convicted on charges related to transmitting information or working for Russian intelligence services, while other trials are continuing in Frankfurt and various German cities.
The authorities also arrested a German-Ukrainian woman on charges of helping a Russian diplomat attend political events under a false identity and building a communications network that serves Russian intelligence. Moscow responded to the accusations as an attempt to discredit its diplomatic mission.
Diplomatic and security tension
These developments come at a time when German-Chinese relations are witnessing increasing tension due to trade disputes and accusations of unfair competition. Recurring issues related to Russia and China also reinforce the German authorities' conviction of the necessity of tightening security oversight over strategic sectors, amid official warnings that any espionage activities on German soil will be faced with strict legal and political measures.
On Monday, Russia urged foreign nationals and diplomats present in Kiev to leave, declaring its intention to launch more strikes on the Ukrainian capital, including “decision-making centers.” This coincided with the death of six people on Monday in Ukrainian strikes on the Belgorod and Bryansk border regions in Russia and in areas under Moscow’s control, while two people were killed in a Russian missile attack on the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, “The (anticipated) strikes will target decision-making centers and leadership centers... We urge foreign nationals, including employees of diplomatic missions and international organizations, to leave the city as soon as possible.”
Hours earlier, four people, including two children, died in the town of Gorlivka, located on the front line in the Donetsk region, according to what the local administration appointed by Moscow announced. Mayor Ivan Prikhodko said: “As a result of the Ukrainian armed aggression in the Kalininsky district of Gorlovka, four civilians were killed, including two children born in 2012 and 2013,” using the Russian name for the area.
Two people were also killed in the morning in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Bryansk and Belgorod border regions in western Russia, according to local authorities.
Ukraine often targets Russia in response to the daily bombing it has been subjected to since the start of the Russian invasion of its territory in February 2022.
These developments came in the wake of a Russian bombing that particularly targeted Kiev, in which Ukraine confirmed that Russia used Oreshnik ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
For its part, Russia said that its attacks followed drone strikes on cultural centers in the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, which is under Russian control, killing 21 people and wounding more than forty.
Also on Monday, local authorities in the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine announced that two people were killed and 19 others injured in a Russian missile attack.
The attack on the town of Dergashi resulted in the deaths of two men, aged 68 and 25, and led to the transfer of 17 people to hospital, according to regional governor Oleg Sinigubov, who said that two other people were treated at the site of the attack.
Russian forces controlled vast swathes of the Kharkiv border region when they invaded the country in 2022, but were routed months later in a surprise counterattack.
This escalation comes in light of the faltering of the American-brokered talks aimed at ending this conflict, the most violent in Europe since World War II, since the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
