Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strong

Delta Air Lines missed earnings estimates for the first time in two years and slashed its 2026 profit outlook as high fuel prices persist, but CEO Ed Bastian said higher fares aren't turning off travelers.

Delta on Friday forecast full-year earnings per share of between $5.10 and $5.60 on an adjusted basis, compared with its outlook in July, when fuel prices were lower, of $6.50 to $7.50 a share. The company's fourth-quarter guidance was below analyst estimates, too.

Delta cut its free cash flow outlook for the year to $2.5 billion, from as much as $4 billion it expected in July.

Still, Bastian said in an interview that fares have continued to tick up as the airline passes along much of a $6 billion increase in fuel costs this year, and that travelers keep booking.

"The consumer response continues to be quite strong. We're seeing it across all channels, all cabins of service, all geographies, business, leisure," he said.

Delta forecast a 20% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter over the same period last year, more than the 16% rise in the third quarter, when adjusting for the airline's benefit from its refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, where it refines crude oil into jet fuel and other products, giving it an advantage over other carriers.

"Obviously the fuel pricing, the volatility of fuel prices have something to do with that," Bastian said.

Delta is the country's most profitable airline and the first to report results from the third quarter, which encompasses the busy summer season.

Costs continued to weigh on the bottom line. The fuel price surge since the Iran war began in February has put a damper on airline profits even as carriers flex pricing power. The latest inflation read for September showed airfare up more than 23% from a year earlier.

Here's what the company reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on consensus estimates from LSEG:

Earnings per share: $1.72 adjusted vs. $1.75 expected

Adjusted revenue: $17.59 billion adjusted vs. $17.67 billion expected

Delta reported net income of $756 million, or $1.15 a share, down 47% from $1.42 billion, or $2.17 per share, a year earlier. Adjusting for one-time items, Delta posted earnings of $1.76 per share.

Adjusting for sales from its refinery, maintenance business and profit-sharing, revenue rose 16% from the previous year to $17.59 billion. Operating revenue jumped 21% in the third quarter to $20.19 billion.

Delta's premium revenue, which has become a larger portion of its total sales, grew 18% in the third quarter to $6.82 billion, while main cabin sales rose only 12% to $6.8 billion.