Denmark warns of low but growing risk of limited Russian military attack on NATO countries
Quick Look
- Denmark's intelligence service warned of a low but growing risk that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering it, possibly using drones, missiles, or troops under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, aiming to divide NATO.
- The warning came amid broader concerns about Russian hybrid warfare, including sabotage in Poland and alleged drone attack plots in Germany, while EU officials criticized Donald Trump's invitation to Vladimir Putin for a G20 meeting in Miami.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Denmark's defence intelligence service issued a new threat assessment warning of a low but growing risk that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering it, using drones, missiles, or troops under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, with the aim of dividing NATO. This comes amid broader concerns about Russian hybrid warfare, including sabotage in Poland and alleged drone attack plots targeting Germany, Spain, France, and Italy.
There is "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it, Denmark intelligence has warned
Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.
He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
"The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO," he said
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is facing backlash after inviting Russian president Vladimir Putin to a December G20 meeting in Miami, for what would be his second US visit since the war began.
"It's clearly, I think, the wrong path to normalise people who are starting wars, who are going against the UN charter, who are killing and giving orders to kill civilians," said the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, speaking to Sky News.
'Low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries, Denmark warns
Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, Denmark's defence intelligence service said in a new threat assessment on Thursday.
Hybrid warfare and sabotage on European soil gained renewed attention after Germany recently blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport, prompting European Union members to call for new sanctions against Russia.
Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations in NATO countries, or plotting any confrontation.
The Russian embassy in Denmark rejected the assessment as unsupported by credible evidence and accused the West, led by Denmark, of driving up tensions over Ukraine.
"Our persistent warnings about the destructiveness of such an approach are being ignored," the embassy said in a written statement.
The defence intelligence service said Russia would carry out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO "with greater consequences for the countries targeted than in the past".
It added that there was "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border it.
"A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," it said.
Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.
He said Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities.
Dan Haygarth24 September 2026 23:48
Finnish leader pleads with Musk to help Ukraine hit Russian missile launchers
Alexander Stubb said on Thursday he pleaded with SpaceX owner Elon Musk to expand Starlink satellite internet coverage for Ukraine so it can strike Russian ballistic missile launchers located inside Russian territory.
With winter looming, Ukraine has an acute shortage of air defenses to repel Russian ballistic missiles, and Kyiv officials believe that turning on Starlink over Russian territory would help it target the Russian launchers that fire the missiles.
"That's why ... I plead that Elon Musk would give the Ukrainians the possibility to use Starlink in areas where there are ballistic missile launchers, either in the occupied territory of Ukraine or in Russia for strategic purposes because that would save lives," Stubb said.
The Finnish leader, a staunch ally of Ukraine who also has good relations with US President Donald Trump, made the remark in an interview with Reuters in New York where world leaders have converged for the annual gathering at the United Nations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky used the event to press hard for ceasefires that would cover strikes on targets related to energy infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea. Russia has given no public indication it wants to see such arrangements.
Dan Haygarth24 September 2026 23:21
German minister calls for ceasefire starting around the Black Sea
German foreign minister Johann Wadephul has called for a full and immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, starting in the Black Sea, to safeguard grain and food supplies.
"Ukraine had a very good grain harvest this year. But because of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports, it can't be delivered to the world.
“Russia is thereby exacerbating hunger and starvation worldwide," he said in a statement published on Thursday.
Alex Croft24 September 2026 23:00
In pictures: Kharkiv farm battered in overnight Russian air attack
Alex Croft24 September 2026 22:02
Poland suspects Russia behind fire at Starlink satellite station
A fire broke out on Wednesday evening at a ground-based Starlink satellite communications station in central Poland providing connectivity for the region, including Ukraine, deputy prime minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said.
He added that the systems were now operational.
Poland has been on heightened alert for acts of sabotage since Russia's invasion of neighbouring Ukraine in 2022. Russia has repeatedly denied any such action.
"The fire engulfed the power station and the generator; it is clear that this act of sabotage was deliberately designed to disable the station — effectively cutting off the internet connection... and disrupting internet access for various institutions, including the Ukrainian military," he said.
"While everything is operational today, we must recognise —as Prime Minister Tusk recently noted — that this is an element of hybrid warfare."
He added that while it was not established that Russia was responsible for the fire, "many signs suggest this aligns with Russia’s new doctrine of attack".
Alex Croft24 September 2026 21:01
Zelensky tells world leaders that Putin is ‘patient zero’ for spreading war globally - but Ukraine has a cure
Volodymyr Zelensky looked tired. His delivery was halting. Like the country he leads he can barely comprehend that he is still talking of war into the fifth year of Ukraine’s defence against Russia.
He has a new message and a new way to deliver it. Vladimir Putin, he told the assembled world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, is “patient zero” spreading the infection of war to Africa, Asia, all over the world.
“Putin is always looking for someone who can help him kill more, kill more people for every kilometre of land, take more territory, attack another country instead of simply stopping and running his own country, the Ukrainian president said.
Zelensky tells world leaders that Putin is ‘patient zero’ - but Ukraine has a cure
In his address to the UN the Ukrainian president warned Nato allies Putin is spreading the ‘infection’ of war throughout the world and implored them to crackdown on the Russian leader before the contagion spreads further, writes Sam Kiley
Shweta Sharma24 September 2026 20:01
Zelensky signs drone deals with Finland, Australia and other countries
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has signed a "drone deal" with Finland, another in a series of agreements combining Kyiv's technical expertise with other countries' industrial capacity.
"We are always ready to share what has helped us save lives with our closest friends," Mr Zelensky wrote.
When the war began in February 2022, Ukraine had limited experience in drone technology. Kyiv has rapidly developed its expertise and is now able to down drones, many of them designed by Iran.
It has offered its technology to a wide range of countries, many of them in the Middle East, facing Iranian weaponry.
Kyiv has now clinched "drone deals" with 10 countries and has an accord with the European Union.
In his address to the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Zelensky said a security accord had also been concluded with Australia.
He described the drone deals as "ready-made security formats that we adapt to each specific country and each specific region".
"We are already working with partners in the Gulf, the South Caucasus, and across Europe through drone deals."
Developing drones, he said, allowed countries to control borders, mountain areas and roads "and without them, this would simply be impossible".
Jane Dalton24 September 2026 19:00
Croatian court rules Ukrainian man suspected in Nord Stream blasts can be extradited to Germany
A Croatian court has ruled that a Ukrainian man suspected of being involved in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline blasts can be extradited to Germany, Ukraine's Suspilne news portal reported on Thursday.
German prosecutors have said the man — identified as Vladimir Z. — was a scuba diver who was part of a group behind the blasts, which followed Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier that year.
The explosions — described by Russia and Western countries as sabotage — damaged the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a vital route for Russian gas exports to Europe, as well as the Nord Stream 2 branch, which had yet to enter service.
Vladimir Z.'s lawyer, Mykola Katerynchuk, dismissed the court ruling, made on Friday last week, as biased and political and said there would be an appeal, according to the Suspilne report.
German courts have treated the case as falling within their jurisdiction because the damaged pipelines terminate in the German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and their destruction affected Germany's energy security and internal safety.
Vladimir Z. was arrested in August in a hotel in the Croatian coastal city of Pula on a European arrest warrant. He has denied any involvement, his lawyers have said.
With Reuters
Aleksandar Vasovic24 September 2026 18:01
Full article: CIA warns Russia is preparing attacks on Spain, France or Italy with drones from the sea: report
The CIA has warned Russia is preparing to carry out drone strikes in Europe targeting France, Spain and Italy from the sea, according to a report.
Several European governments have been passed information about the Kremlin’s supposed plans to escalate its interference on the continent, an unnamed source close to the Lithuanian ministry of defence told Spanish newspaper El Mundo.
Lithuanian authorities believe Russia could use an explosive-laden Gerbera drone, launched from the sea, to cause a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily close a port or airport, according to the report.
Such a provocation would follow a string of reported incursions and alleged acts of sabotage across eastern Europe blamed on Russia. Those attacks have until now fallen short of the threshold of direct military engagement.
James Reynolds reports:
CIA warns Russia is preparing drone attacks on Spain, France or Italy: report
Lithuania says Russia could try to broaden its pressure on Nato countries through attacks on critical infrastructure including ports or airports
Alex Croft24 September 2026 17:00
EU countries sanction former Russia Today exec Xenia Fedorova
EU countries have agreed to impose sanctions on Xenia Fedorova, a former senior executive of Russian broadcaster Russia Today's French division.
Fedorova was sanctioned for engaging in foreign information manipulation and interference, the bloc said.
It said Federova had "participated in the implementation and dissemination of RT France's editorial line, including pro-Russian narratives in the context of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine".
Alex Croft24 September 2026 16:29
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russia will intensify hybrid warfare and sabotage operations against NATO countries in the coming months.
Likely · Within months
There is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on one or several NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- Which specific NATO countries are most at risk of a limited Russian attack?
- What evidence supports Denmark's assessment of a 'low but growing risk'?
- How might NATO respond if Russia carries out such an attack?
- What is the status of the alleged CIA warning about Russian drone strikes on Spain, France, or Italy?




