Trump's defeat could slow intervention policy in Latin America

President Donald Trump's historic defeat in the United States (USA), which led Republicans to lose their majority in the House and Senate, could help to curb the White House's intervention policy in Latin America, in addition to encouraging Washington to reach an agreement with Brazil in the case of trade tariffs.

Trump's foreign policy has defended Washington's “prominence” in the region, including defending US “domination” on the continent with measures to block China's economic influence in Latin American and Caribbean countries.

This policy was marked by the invasion of Venezuela, with the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, and a subsequent oil agreement with Caracas, which reserved 21% of the country's oil for a company linked to the US Pentagon, with part of the oil to be sold at cost price.

International Relations professor Camila Vidal, from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), explained to Agência Brasil that a Congress with a Democratic majority will impose a series of limits on Trump, such as authorizing spending for actions abroad, and opening investigations against members of the Executive.

"In the context of defense, this will be very important. I imagine that Congress tends to suspend spending in this sector. In Latin America, this tends to be perceived, including within the Shield of the Americas, with perhaps fewer resources and less emphasis on this policy. Therefore, it could represent a brake on stopping these interventionist policies", he assesses.

One of the initiatives that marks Trump's policy in this second term is the Shield of the Americas, created under the justification of combating drug cartels, but which has been identified as an instrument of US interference in the region.

In Bolivia, the Shield of the Americas was used to arrest the country's attorney general, Roger Mariaca, on charges of collaboration with drug trafficking. Mariaca's arrest raised suspicions because he was investigating digital operator Fernando Cerimedo, linked to the Trump movement in the USA, and who served as an advisor to the presidents of Argentina, Javier Milei, and of Bolivia itself, Rodrigo Paz.

Rates

Among other measures taken by the White House, the tariff applied by the Donald Trump administration against Brazil has been interpreted by the Brazilian government as political interference that targeted the October elections in favor of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's opponent.

PhD in Political Science Juliano Machado Pires assesses that this Tuesday's electoral defeat (3) should act as an incentive for the Trump government to reach an agreement with Brazil.

"If they learned anything from the defeat, it's that the economy needs to improve. Picking a fight with Brazil right now doesn't make any sense," he told Agência Brasil.

Juliano also added that State Department Secretary Marco Rubio, responsible for the Trump administration's foreign policy, should be busier giving explanations to Congress now with a Democratic majority.

"They need a series of agreements that they are interested in in Brazil, in various areas, such as tariffs, rare earths and data centers. If they are rational, it is time to make peace with the Brazilian government," he said.

Juliano Machado does not rule out, however, the possibility that the Trump administration seeks to create “factoids” abroad to divert attention from internal problems.