Hundreds of actions planned, “overflows” expected and politicians in the processions: what should we expect for the demonstrations on Saturday October 17?

Will social discontent spread? After several weeks of mobilization by high school students, tens of thousands of people are expected to demonstrate across France on Saturday, October 17, to denounce, in bulk, the rise in fuel prices, the insufficient resources of National Education and even the police management of the high school movement.

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Where are the demonstrations planned? How are the authorities preparing for this movement? How do political parties and unions position themselves? Franceinfo takes stock.

Nearly 500 actions in the country according to the Ministry of the Interior, 1,300 according to a participatory map

Late Friday morning, "around 500 actions [were] planned and more than 90 demonstrations [were] being structured", franceinfo learned from those close to the Ministry of the Interior. According to an information note consulted by France Télévisions on Friday morning, 60,000 to 110,000 participants are expected in processions "in large student towns" outside Paris, as well as on roundabouts, in front of service stations and supermarkets, a source close to the Ministry of the Interior described to franceinfo on Thursday. This source estimates from franceinfo, Friday afternoon, that the level of this movement, "complicated and evolving", will be closer to 150,000 participants, not counting the participation in Paris.

In Paris, the procession which will bring together unions and yellow vests will leave from Place de la Bastille. After tough negotiations, the capital's police headquarters finally authorized a route going from Place de la République to Place de Clichy, via boulevards Magenta, Barbès and Clichy. On the other hand, the prefecture has banned gatherings in several sectors of the capital, under penalty of a fine of 135 euros. Among them, the famous Avenue des Champs-Elysées, the Places de la Concorde, de la Bourse, du Châtelet, de la Bastille, d'Italie and their surroundings as well as those of the Elysée Palace, the Ministry of the Interior, Matignon, the National Assembly, the Senate, the Palais de Justice, the Police Prefecture, the Hôtel de Ville and the Parisian train stations.

Outside of Paris, "the most significant mobilizations are expected" in Lyon, Marseille, Lille, Montpellier and Toulouse, in ascending order, with processions expected to bring together between 5,000 and 9,000 people, again according to intelligence estimates.

A collaborative map proposed by the site "17octetgiletjaune.net", published by several collectives including the regional coordination "Bloquons tout" Ile-de-France, listed nearly 1,400 actions planned in France at midday on Friday. But anyone can declare a gathering there, even if the platform assures that “the location will be published on the map after verification by the team”; It is therefore difficult to rely on it for precise quantification of mobilizations.

A convergence of anger

The various organized actions will bring together numerous demands. The October 17 date was initially proposed as part of a movement of anger against rising fuel prices. She has since received the support of former yellow vests, like Jérôme Rodrigues, who initially kept their distance from this call.

This day of mobilization mainly benefited from the high school movement, which has brought together thousands of adolescents for several weeks to demand better educational conditions, the replacement of absent teachers, or to criticize the current functioning of Parcoursup as well as the management of the movement by the police. Several high school and student unions have called to join the demonstrations, but "no concrete action is really planned by high school and student organizations", notes the information.

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Unions are also involved: the general secretary of the CGT, Sophie Binet, calls for mobilization "wherever the conditions are met". The other main union centers, such as the CFDT and the FSU, have not launched an explicit call to join the movement, favoring the inter-union call to demonstrate on November 5, even if some of their local branches will be there.

On the farmers' side, only the Peasant Confederation, the third union in the sector, reiterated its call for "the convergence of struggles in the face of an ultraliberal government". The SUD-Rail and SUD Education federations are calling for action. Collectives of nurses, home helpers and taxi unions have also called for mobilizations in several cities in France.

Law enforcement anticipates “overflows”

Laurent Nuñez recalled his instructions to the police and gendarmes on Thursday. The Minister of the Interior asked the Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, to convene an interministerial crisis unit (CIC) with a view to the mobilization of October 17.

The “peaceful” demonstrations will be “supervised and secure”, a source close to the ministry told franceinfo. “Long-term blockages of equipment or structuring axes” and “excesses or attempts at extortion will be subject to firm and immediate intervention by the police,” according to the same source. “Service stations, train stations, communication routes and tolls could be targeted” by “potentially violent offensive actions”, describes the intelligence.

According to the minister's entourage, excesses are anticipated in the Parisian processions and other cities. “The context of high school and student anger, the sounding board offered to the movement by the media (…), the importation of methods of confrontation resulting from urban violence, a convergence of radicalities and the absence of planning and supervision of the movement raise fears of eruptive, poorly prepared and offensive actions”, describes the intelligence note. The police anticipate that "ultra-left activists will join demonstrations in several large cities where it is well established", such as Nantes, Rennes, Marseille, Toulouse, Lille, Montpellier and Grenoble.

“In an extremely degraded context, (…) all types of intermediate weapons can be used,” said Laurent Nuñez on France 2. “If there were to be extremely serious urban violence, (…) the police and gendarmes must be able to use all the intermediate weapons at their disposal,” adds the minister. The category of “intermediate weapons” includes LBDs, electric shock guns and even stun grenades, the use of which was temporarily suspended in the context of high school demonstrations after a teenager had his hand torn off by one of these weapons in Lens.

Political leaders expected in the processions