“Record levels” of temperatures in the coming months: the El Niño phenomenon will continue to intensify until its peak in December

The ongoing powerful El Niño weather phenomenon will further intensify in the coming months until reaching its peak in December, before persisting until February, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, said on Thursday. El Nino is a natural climate variation that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The current episode, declared in June, could become the most intense on record, amplifying the effects of human-caused climate change. According to the seasonal climate bulletin, published monthly by the WMO, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach “record levels in October, November and December, reflecting the intensification of the El Niño episode”.

This phenomenon is expected to generate above-average temperatures across much of the globe and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of drought and flooding in different regions. “El Niño is well established and intensifying rapidly. According to WMO forecasts, the probability that it will persist until February 2027 is close to 100%, which could make it one of the most intense episodes since at least 1950,” declared WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo, quoted in a press release.

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This figure comes from a consensus between thirteen national and international centers based on the real-time exchange of data from oceanographic buoys, satellites and radiosondes, coordinated by the WMO. According to this specialized UN agency, El Niño “is expected to continue to intensify before reaching its peak in December”, while the Earth experienced its hottest August on record.

“There is simply more heat ready to be released”

Sea surface temperatures in the “Niño 3.4 region”, a reference area in the Pacific, have increased significantly in recent months, “from an average of +1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5°C above normal in August”, indicates the WMO. For the months of October, November and December, this figure should “reach around +3.7°C and peak around the month of December”. This would be the highest level since observations began, far ahead of the previous record (+2.6°C) recorded between November 2015 and January 2016, notes the WMO.

“El Niño does not bring additional heat to the planet. It releases the heat that the ocean has already stored below the surface - which is why a high intensity event so often results in one of the hottest years on record (like 2024),” explained Celeste Saulo. “The ocean where it draws this heat is the hottest we have ever observed. There is simply more heat ready to be released,” she added.