Deforestation in the Amazon puts US$22 billion at risk, analysis shows

Deforestation in the Amazon may be destroying opportunities to develop medicines before science can even discover them. An analysis by the organization Zero Carbon Analytics estimates that the loss of forest areas between 2001 and 2024 has put at risk US$22 billion in commercial potential for future medicines derived from plants in the region.

The value corresponds to 10.2% of the estimated pharmaceutical potential for the Amazon Basin, which could reach US$214.7 billion. The survey was published in 2026 and considers medicines not yet discovered from flowering plants.

The numbers represent economic projections, not financial losses already realized. The analysis seeks to estimate the value of discovery opportunities that could disappear with the destruction of biodiversity.

According to the organization, the loss of forest areas also threatens natural chemical compounds that could serve as the basis for the development of new treatments.

The analysis points out that the planet's tropical forests could harbor a commercial potential of US$714 billion in still unknown medicines.

Of this total, approximately 30% are associated with the Amazon Basin, which concentrates the largest portion of the estimated potential among the large forest regions evaluated.

Deforestation, however, threatens this natural heritage. Worldwide, the destruction of tropical forests since 2001 has put an estimated $86 billion in commercial drug discovery opportunities at risk, according to Zero Carbon Analytics.

To arrive at the results, the organization combined information on the diversity of plant species with forest loss data obtained by satellite and economic models used in the evaluation of medicines.

The estimate considers that regions with greater species richness may offer more opportunities for the identification of chemical compounds that are still unknown.

The analysis highlights, however, that the loss of a forest area does not necessarily mean the definitive disappearance of all the substances present in it. Some compounds may remain available in plants from other regions.

"Still, populations of the same species can present chemical differences, which increases uncertainty about the potential lost with the destruction of vegetation", says Alexandre Rodrigues, a biologist specializing in biodiversity.

The importance of natural substances for medicine helps explain the size of the risk.

According to scientific data gathered by Zero Carbon Analytics, around three in every four cancer medicines discovered between 1940 and 2014 originated from, were derived from, or inspired by substances found in nature.

Despite this contribution, the organization highlights that approximately 99% of the chemical compounds produced by plants have not yet been explored by science.

"This means that there is a wide universe of substances with still unknown properties, including in species that have already been identified", says Rodrigues. "The potential is not limited to plants. Fungi, microorganisms and animals also produce natural compounds that can contribute to the development of medicines."

However, the economic estimates presented in the analysis only consider potential medicines derived from tropical forest flowering plants.

The estimated economic impacts could increase in the coming decades if deforestation continues.

In a scenario that maintains the rate of forest loss observed between 2001 and 2024, Zero Carbon Analytics calculates that another US$88 billion in commercial potential for medicines could be put at risk in tropical forests by 2050.

With this, the accumulated value since 2001 would reach US$ 174 billion.

On the other hand, if tropical deforestation were stopped by 2030, it would be possible to preserve around US$79 billion in commercial opportunities until 2050, compared to the scenario of continued destruction.

These projections consider tropical forests around the world, not just the Amazon.

The organization also evaluated the possible benefits of undiscovered medicines for society.

According to the analysis, tropical forests could concentrate approximately US$7 trillion in social value associated with future medicines.

This estimate considers benefits to the health of patients, which may continue even after the end of patents and the arrival of generic versions on the market.

In this calculation, the deforestation recorded since 2001 would have put around US$860 billion in potential social benefits at risk.

For Zero Carbon Analytics, the results reinforce the importance of conserving tropical forests and protecting biodiversity that can contribute to future medical discoveries.

The organization also advocates greater participation by the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors in conservation financing, as well as mechanisms to share economic benefits with indigenous peoples and local communities that help protect these ecosystems.