The German export economy has suffered a setback. After five months of growth, the calendar and seasonally adjusted value of exports for July was 0.8 percent below the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. According to preliminary calculations, the exported goods had a value of 138.2 billion euros. Compared to the same month last year, there was a significant increase of 6.1 percent.
Imports to Germany have also shrunk. Compared to June, there is a decrease of 5.7 percent. The imported goods were worth 116.9 billion euros. The foreign trade surplus climbed significantly to 21.3 billion euros, the highest level since August 2024.
Association sees fragile situation and price effects
According to the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA), the figures show how fragile the economic situation continues to be. There can be no question of a stable upswing, explains BGA President Dirk Jandura. He demands: “German foreign trade continues to show resilience. But resilience alone is not enough. Politicians must strengthen the location through fundamental reforms and relieve the burden on companies.”
The BGA also warned against viewing the previous year's comparison too positively. You also have to take the price effects into account. If export prices in July were 4.2 percent above the previous year's level, nominal export growth of 6.1 percent does not mean that the quantity of goods exported increased to the same extent. The price effect is even stronger for imports. “So good nominal figures don’t automatically mean more sales.”
Customs agreement with the USA in force
German providers achieved growth primarily in business with the USA. Exports worth 14.4 billion euros represented an increase of 19.1 percent compared to June and even 28.3 percent compared to the same month last year.
One reason was the entry into force of the Turnberry Customs Agreement between the USA and the European Union, as the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry explains. The agreement initially applies until 2029 and limits tariffs on most EU imports to the US to 15 percent, including cars and auto parts. For European steel and aluminum to the USA, 50 percent is due. Conversely, the EU does not impose tariffs on US goods.
The BGA also sees additional US demand for German machinery, equipment and technologies as the US economy reindustrialises and continues to invest in AI applications and data centers.
Fewer exports to China and the UK
However, German exports to the European Union, Great Britain and China declined. Goods worth 5.6 billion euros went to the People's Republic (-9.5 percent compared to June). As the largest importer to Germany, China delivered goods worth 15.2 billion euros, which also meant a decrease of 7.5 percent compared to the previous month.
China is expanding global exports
In August, China expanded its global exports, which are increasingly competing with German suppliers. According to the customs authority in Beijing, exports increased by 25 percent in US dollars compared to the same month last year, which was even more significant than in July (23.9 percent). Imports also rose sharply, increasing by 28.2 percent in August. However, a decline of 9.7 percent was recorded in Germany.
China's trade surplus has increased over the course of the year since January to a total of 805.5 billion US dollars (currently around 693.6 billion euros). By 2025, China had reached a record surplus of $1.2 trillion. Top sellers include cars and electronic components for expanding the infrastructure for artificial intelligence.
Eliminate imbalance?
The USA and the European Union have long been demanding that China correct the imbalance in their mutual trade relationship. The EU has been negotiating solutions with Beijing since the end of June. Concrete results should be on the table by October. Talks are also scheduled between China's head of state Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. The Republican invited Xi to the White House on September 24 during his trip to Beijing in May. China has not yet confirmed the visit.
The export offensive is not least a reaction to the weak consumer sentiment in China itself, which is also a problem for German companies. “What companies still need is a strong increase in domestic demand,” said the head of the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad (AHK) in North China, Oliver Oehms.
