Foreign diplomats in Brasilia are considering quickly recognizing whoever wins the second round of Sunday's presidential election, four ambassadors told Reuters, with the aim of avoiding any attempts from outside the country to prematurely declare victory for either candidate.
However, they have not yet formalized a plan, with several diplomatic missions still discussing with their governments how best to proceed, the sources added.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who finished the first round at the beginning of the month in the lead, is tied with the president and candidate for re-election Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 50% of the valid votes, according to a Datafolha survey released on Thursday.
Two ambassadors told Reuters they fear US President Donald Trump or his administration could question the result if Lula wins by a narrow margin.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump or (right-wing Argentine President Javier) Milei declared Bolsonaro the winner even before the electoral authorities,” said an ambassador, adding that he feared that such a scenario could provoke a serious institutional crisis.
The ambassador, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said he was not involved in discussions with other governments.
The US State Department and the US embassy in Brasilia did not respond to questions about whether Trump would commit to recognizing the winner of the second round as announced by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The court did not respond to a request for comment.
An ambassador said his concern about Trump comes after the U.S. leader's comments about recent elections in Latin America, including the 2025 presidential election in Honduras. Amid delays in counting votes, Trump alleged fraud without providing evidence and said there would be “dire consequences” if Honduras changed the preliminary results that put his preferred candidate in the lead.
A premature recognition by Trump or someone else “could lead to an institutional crisis that no one wants,” this ambassador said.
'Confidence in the Brazilian system'
In Brazil's 2022 elections, foreign governments, including the United States, the European Union and many Latin American countries, played an important role in recognizing Lula's victory over then-president Jair Bolsonaro, who refused to concede defeat for days.
Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, was later sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup d'état after his defeat in those elections led his supporters to violently invade the headquarters of the Three Powers.
"Our main objective is to recognize the result of an election that we hope will be carried out according to good standards. We have confidence in the Brazilian electoral system," a European ambassador told Reuters, adding that "speed is the main concern."
Flávio Bolsonaro came out ahead of Lula in the first round of elections on October 4, sending markets soaring on optimism that he was well positioned to win and pass economic reforms that favor business, with the help of a new Congress dominated by his allies.
Flávio maintains a small lead over Lula in the polls as the second round approaches, but polls suggest that this lead is shrinking as the vote approaches.
“If Lula wins, especially by a narrow margin, it is inevitable that at least some will say that the vote was somehow rigged in his favor,” said one ambassador, who said this hypothetical scenario increases pressure on Brazilian electoral authorities and international observers to quickly confirm the vote’s result.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo, said that Trump's eventual refusal to quickly recognize a Lula victory would be a low point in bilateral relations.
“I think this is a scenario that we need to keep on the radar,” he said.
The ambassadors interviewed by Reuters expressed confidence in the electoral process and Brazilian institutions, and stated that the concerns did not refer to a specific candidate, but to possible electoral denialism, which could affect the already declining confidence in Brazil's democratic institutions.
“I don’t care if Lula or Bolsonaro wins,” said one ambassador. “What matters to me is the state of Brazilian democracy after this election.”
