Dollar opens with inflation in Brazil, fiscal package and US employment data on the radar

The dollar and Ibovespa, the main index on the Brazilian stock exchange, are expected to react this Thursday (12) to a series of economic indicators and decisions that could influence the direction of the Brazilian economy.

Here, attention is focused on the release of October inflation and the vote, in the Senate, on a package of measures that seeks to improve public accounts. In the United States, investors are following new data on the job market.

In Brazil, one of the main highlights is the vote on Complementary Bill (PLP) 299/2026, scheduled for 4pm in the Senate. The proposal brings together measures to contain the growth of public expenditure and expand government spending control mechanisms. The package could improve the result of public accounts by around R$50 billion in 2027.

The vote is closely monitored by the market, as the government's ability to control public spending influences investor confidence in the Brazilian economy. This perception can also affect the dollar exchange rate and the performance of shares on the stock exchange.

On the agenda of economic indicators, the highlight is the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for October, at 9 am. The expectation is for inflation to slow down after the 0.82% increase recorded in September. In August, prices had fallen 0.32%. The result helps investors evaluate the Central Bank's next steps in relation to the basic interest rate, the Selic.

Abroad, attention turns to the US, where the Department of Labor releases initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending November 7th. The forecast is for 195 thousand requests, compared to 189 thousand in the previous week. The indicator helps measure the strength of the American labor market and can influence expectations about the next steps in US interest rates.

The Senate is expected to vote this Thursday (12) on a package of federal government measures to control public spending and improve the country's accounts. According to the Ministry of Planning, the proposal could have an impact of up to R$60 billion in 2027, with R$50 billion to meet fiscal targets and R$10 billion to make room for new expenses, such as the University Nest Egg.

Among the main measures are: the creation of stricter limits on the growth of public spending; the possibility of temporarily blocking certain mandatory expenses; a reduction of up to 20% in some tax benefits granted to companies. The text also foresees changes in the calculation of minimum resources allocated to health and establishes a deadline for regulating the so-called super salaries for public servants.

In the United States, futures indexes operated without a single direction this Thursday (12), amid uncertainty about the future of Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang. At around 7:26 am (Brasília time), the Nasdaq 100 future fell 0.64% and the S&P 500 future fell 0.31%, while the Dow Jones future rose 0.12%. Nvidia shares fell as much as 6% before the opening bell.

In Europe, markets advanced, driven by positive corporate results and the easing of tensions between the US and Iran. At around 6:26 am, the STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, while the German DAX rose 1.1%. Both hit records as investors search for alternatives to technology stocks.

In Asia, stock markets closed mostly lower, pressured by fears of new American restrictions on the sale of chips to China. The Shanghai index fell 0.67% to 3,655 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.26% to 24,008 points. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 0.70%, to 60,819 points.