The Ibovespa retreats this Thursday (15), pressured by electoral uncertainties and concerns about companies' costs after the advancement, in the Senate, of the proposal that foresees the end of the 6x1 scale. At 12:19 pm, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange fell 0.11%, to 206,276, recovering after spending the first hours of the day in a more pronounced fall.
The new Quaest survey showed a technical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with 46% of voting intentions, and President Lula (PT), with 44%. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. Blank or invalid votes totaled 9%, while 1% of those interviewed declared themselves undecided.
Among the shares that opened the day falling and started to rise is Magazine Luiza, which advanced 4.70% at 12:25 pm, after falling 4.48% the day before. For Thiago Valencia, partner at Valor Investimentos, it is still too early to attribute the recovery of shares to a specific factor. He cites, however, a JPMorgan report that shows optimism about the retail and healthcare sectors in Brazil. According to Valencia, retail shares trade, on average, at nine times projected earnings, around 40% below the average of the last five years.
The analyst also states that the market is still digesting recent indicators, such as higher-than-expected American inflation and Brazilian retail sales below expectations. Added to these factors are concerns about the proposal to reduce working hours and electoral uncertainties. For him, volatility should continue until the second round is defined.
For Rodrigo Marcatti, economist and CEO of Veedha Investimentos, the combination of electoral uncertainties with concerns about company costs tends to put pressure on Brazilian assets. Part of the market welcomes a possible victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, due to the expectation of greater commitment to fiscal adjustment. The advancement of the proposal to reduce working hours raises concerns about increased costs for companies.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose 0.24%, quoted at R$5.042, contrary to the movement abroad. At 10:57 am, the DXY index, which measures the American currency in relation to a basket of strong currencies, fell 0.38%.
For Otávio Araújo, senior consultant at ZERO Markets Brasil, the approval of the proposal to end the 6x1 scale reignited the debate on labor costs, company productivity and possible tax effects. Added to electoral uncertainty, the discussion tends to increase the volatility of Brazilian markets. This Thursday's political agenda also includes Lula's hearing on Globo and the release of a new Datafolha survey.
A study by Warren Investimentos estimates that reducing weekly working hours from 44 to 40 hours could increase the IPCA by 0.38 to 0.42 percentage points throughout the implementation of the measure. According to the analysis, reducing hours worked without a proportional cut in wages would increase the cost per hour of work. As a result, part of this expense could be passed on to prices.
The fall of the Ibovespa also reflects the decline in Petrobras shares, despite the recovery in oil prices on the international market. After starting the day at a low, a barrel of Brent, the global reference for the commodity, rose 0.35% at 12:30 pm, quoted at US$ 106.
Gabriel Mota, variable income analyst at Manchester Investimentos, adds that the Stock Exchange had already been losing strength since the day before (14). According to him, the Quaest survey released the night before contributed to profit taking, following the recent appreciation of shares with the prospect of a change in government. The movement, he states, also reflects an unfavorable external scenario, marked by tensions in the Middle East and inflationary pressures in the USA.
Brazilian future interest rates were rising. At the short end of the curve, contracts expiring in January 2028 were traded at 12.800%, with an increase of 0.09 percentage points. On the long end, contracts for January 2035 were at 12.685%, with a variation of 0.07 percentage points.
The movement occurs in the opposite direction to the yields on United States Treasury bonds, known as Treasuries, which serve as a reference for the global interest market. Ten-year bonds yielded 5.091%, down 1.81%, while 30-year bonds yielded 5.424%, down 1.79%.
Still in the domestic scenario, the IBGE reported that retail sales grew 0.1% in August compared to July and 0.4% compared to the same month in 2025. The results were below the expectations of economists consulted by Reuters, who projected an increase of 0.7% in the monthly comparison and 1.45% in one year.
Abroad, the highlight of the economic agenda is the release of the PPI (producer price index) for September in the United States. The indicator measures the variation in prices received by producers and helps monitor inflationary pressures in the American economy, offering clues about the Fed's (Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States) next steps.
The PPI rose 1.3% in September, well above market expectations of 0.5%, after rising 0.5% in August. It was the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. In 12 months, the index accelerated to 6.3%, compared to 5.6% in August and expectations of 5.3%, reaching the highest level since December 2022. The core of the indicator, which excludes more volatile components, such as food and energy, rose 0.7% in the month, above the projection of 0.3%, and accumulated an increase of 5% in 12 months, compared to expectations of 4.4%.
For Vitor Kayo, senior economist at Nomad, the data shows that pressure on prices in the US remains strong. "Energy is the main vector, as it had already been in the September CPI, but the core also came in above projection, a sign that the movement is not limited to fuels", he says.
On Wall Street, the Stock Exchanges operated without a single direction. At 12:32 pm, the Dow Jones rose 0.99%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.21% and the Nasdaq fell 0.37%.
