“Since diesel prices have increased, I try to use my pick-up as little as possible.” Sitting at the wheel of his huge yellow 4x4, Jacob Bolson pulls a small notebook from the door and adjusts his glasses to better search among the dozens of lines of numbers before his eyes. “Here you go: last year, during the three weeks of harvest, I spent $250 on tanks of diesel. This year, over the same period, it cost me $750.” A bill three times higher which illustrates the difficulties of American farmers, hard hit by the surge in fuel and fertilizer prices since the start of the war in Iran.
The economy and inflation are the main concerns of voters across the Atlantic, three days before the midterms on Tuesday, November 3. The entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate must be renewed in these midterm elections, which could see Republicans lose the majority in one or both chambers of Congress. And in Iowa, a small rural state that most often votes “red” – the color of conservatives – the increase in bills could tip the scales in favor of the Democrats.
The races for the House of Representatives, the Senate and the post of governor therefore promise to be very close. To the point of encouraging Donald Trump to court the three million inhabitants of Iowa, and in particular those who exploit the immense plains of this state in the center of the country, notes the CBS channel. “I love farmers,” assured the Republican president on October 22 during a meeting. Before insisting: “We take care of our farmers.”
Farmers in the dark
That's not how Ryan Marquardt feels. “Donald Trump is making our job more difficult with this completely avoidable war in Iran,” said this native of Iowa, who farms 300 hectares about thirty minutes from Des Moines. He raises around twenty cows there and grows corn and soybeans, the two major crops in this Midwestern state. At the same time, he works for the local administration. “An assurance of having income,” explains this 45-year-old American, whose family has cultivated the same land for five generations.
The Iowa plains, once covered in prairies, are now 85% dedicated to agriculture, according to Iowa State University. Traveling along the roads laid out in the square of the State, we can indeed see endless expanses of yellowed fields. At the end of October, clouds of dust are rising everywhere, in the wake of tractors busy completing the harvests delayed by an abnormally rainy month of September. “We already have to deal with the uncertainties of the weather,” breathes Ryan Marquardt, also vice-president of the Iowa Farmers Union. “Now we also have to deal with an unpredictable president.”
This father of two children, whose fields have not yet been harvested, is in the dark about what this year will hold for him. The increase in costs has so far been limited, with the prices of inputs or certain expenses being negotiated a year in advance. “But I have almost no agricultural machinery of my own: I use contract workers, who come to sow, spread fertilizers and pesticides, and harvest,” explains this former Democratic candidate in local elections. “All this requires diesel, and the price increase will inevitably be reflected in my bills.”
"The cost of transporting the corn harvest is expected to increase from $15,000 to $20,000. The exact amount, I will find out from the bill at the end of the month."
Ryan Marquardt, Iowa farmer
at franceinfo
Two hours' drive further north, the tractors have already passed through Jacob Bolson's fields. The 42-year-old American has a full-time job and contract assignments on 400 hectares belonging to other farmers, in addition to managing his own farm.
With his wife – who also has another job – they dedicate their evenings and weekends to the cultivation of 50 hectares of corn and soybeans, sown on land that they have rented since 2021 from a landowner living on the west coast. “I'm lucky: she asks us for a reasonable rent, because she knows that we invest in [environmental] conservation solutions or to improve water quality,” explains this employee of a large agricultural equipment group, while inspecting a field in his pick-up.
Fees increased by 25 to 35%
Jacob Boslon has many other expenses to incur on his farm. Like Ryan Marquardt, he uses contract workers for most day-to-day operations. “Last week, we harvested the soya. Just to transport it to the cooperative, the cost of the truck trip increased by 34%,” he says.
To preserve the soil in winter, Jacob Bolson uses catch crops: plants sown in the fall and uprooted in the spring, which capture nitrates and help limit water pollution – a major midterm issue in Iowa, according to the PBS channel. “This practice has a cost, partly covered by state aid, but which also rises with the price of diesel,” he underlines, observing the shoots which are beginning to germinate. There is also the money “borrowed each year to be able to finance the crops”. “The bank has just told me that the rate will increase,” grimaces Jacob Bolson.
“This year, I will get through it. But I am worried about what awaits farmers in 2027.”
Jacob Bolson, farmer in Iowa
at franceinfo
The two farmers have already started to anticipate their expenses for next year. “My trader told me a 25% increase in fertilizer,” relates Ryan Marquardt, who “is doing better than others financially” because his family owns the land he farms. For Jacob Bolson, the bill for turkey manure will increase from approximately $330 to $370 per hectare. “That’s without counting the spreading,” he recalls.
To limit costs, the farmer purchased, in August, “enough diesel to last a good part of next year”. “I got it at $4.35 per gallon [around $1.17 per liter] while it is listed at $5.58 today,” he says. During the summer, he also negotiated in advance the sale of part of his 2027 harvest, to guarantee a fair price. “Cereal prices were relatively high, and this made it possible to limit the effect of the increase in diesel and fertilizers. But they have fallen, and the situation is becoming more difficult,” notes Jacob Bolson bitterly.
A status quo despite the elections?
In this context, the investments planned for next year risk not being realized. “I have an old barn to repair. It was supposed to cost $20,000, but steel and concrete are also more expensive, because of the trade war,” laments Ryan Marquardt.
Aware of the anger in rural areas, the Trump administration promised, three weeks before the midterms, $8 billion in aid for farmers. “We have no idea how much we will receive, and it will be paid in December or January, well after the harvest,” says Ryan Marquardt. “We don’t want money from the government: it’s a one-off aid, not a lasting economic solution,” says Jacob Bolson, who voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
Neither the Democrat nor the Republican will change their vote on Tuesday. But both believe that the economic situation will influence the results of the mid-term elections. “People are frustrated, including farmers,” assures Ryan Marquardt. Donald Trump "campaigned on the question of purchasing power and the image of a competent man on the economy, but he accomplished nothing", he criticizes.
Pointing instead to a “global situation which needs to return to normal”, Jacob Bolson does not attribute full responsibility for these economic difficulties to the Republican president, in whom he “always trusts”. “Iran is a terrorist regime, which supports terrorist groups,” he justifies. "I don't know if launching this war [against Tehran] was a good decision, but people are suffering from its consequences today," he concedes, however.
"I think a lot of [conservatives] are going to vote for the other side, because they feel like the country is not going in the right direction."
Jacob Bolson, farmer in Iowa
at franceinfo
A few days before a decisive vote for the majority in Congress, the forty-year-old doubts that the midterms will have concrete effects on the daily lives of Americans. "Whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans, what will they be able to do about diesel prices? Ending the war with Iran won't change much immediately," he says. Without "visible improvement in the short term", Jacob Bolson is convinced: "The outlook for farmers is very negative."
