Iraq faces American pressure to disarm the factions with the end of the international coalition’s mission

With the end of the mission of the international coalition led by Washington to fight ISIS, Baghdad faces increasing American pressure to control the weapons of groups close to Tehran, in a complex scene for Iraq, which has always tried to balance its relations with the two adversaries.

Since assuming office this year with American blessing, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to establish the state’s monopoly on the factions’ weapons, considering that the coalition’s departure removes the main justification on which these groups rely to retain their weapons.

However, the delivery of weapons is a very complex issue in Iraq, which, since the American invasion in 2003, has been an arena of competition between the United States and Iran, which enjoy political and security influence there.

Iraq has become more and more volatile since the outbreak of the Middle East war with a US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, and armed factions close to Tehran launched attacks on US interests in Iraq and the region, while Washington responded with bloody attacks on the headquarters of these groups.

Iraqi officials told Agence France-Presse that Iranian officials informed Baghdad of their refusal for the Iraqi factions to hand over their weapons, especially in light of the continuing war. Iraqi political analyst Sajjad Jiyad believes that confining the factions' weapons to the state "will become a very easy issue to deal with if an agreement is reached between the United States and Iran" to end the war.

He added, "Iran has been very clear that, in light of the continuation of the conflict, it cannot abandon its strategic capabilities, and one of these capabilities is the groups loyal to it in Iraq that are capable of attacking American interests in Iraq and the region."

Jiyad believes that "Iran's agenda in this regard is to reach an agreement with the United States, and thus these groups will reduce their visibility and activities, as they will no longer be urgently needed." In parallel, the factions require guarantees that the United States will not target them, before examining their weapons.

In 2014, foreign forces deployed in Iraq and Syria as part of an international coalition led by the United States, to fight jihadists who controlled large areas in the two countries. They also moved to confront armed Iraqi Shiite groups supported by Iran, whose military and political influence grew over time.

After the Iraqi forces announced the defeat of the extremist organization at the end of 2017, the Iraqi factions began to demand the departure of the coalition forces, and began targeting them with drones and missiles, considering them to be “occupation” forces.

Jiyad says, "These groups believe that the government is unable to protect them and that Israel or the United States can target them. At the same time, the government considers that these groups may constitute a burden."

A diplomatic source in Baghdad told AFP that the Iraqi government "does not even have a plan" for how to disarm the factions clinging to its position. After Iraqi officials repeated for months that September 30 was the deadline for the coalition’s mission to end and for all factions to hand over their weapons, they retracted that last month, confirming that the date was exclusively for the coalition to leave, without specifying a deadline for the factions.

The spokesman for the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades faction, Kazem al-Fartusi, says that the factions do not want a confrontation with the government because “there will be no winner,” considering that Iraq, which has known decades of conflicts, rejects “internal clashes.” He added, "Weapons are as expensive as pride and dignity, and they are the only means of deterrence. Therefore, we said that this weapon is in exchange for Iraqi sovereignty."