More than a week has passed since a young plague researcher mysteriously died of pneumonia, and Russia has yet to publicly identify the pathogen that caused her death.
Because the researcher may have contracted pneumonic plague in a laboratory, this sparked global concerns about an outbreak. However, with no other known cases in the Irkutsk region, concerns have begun to recede. On October 2, 28-year-old Darya Shipilova died in the region. She was a researcher at the Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East.
However, despite authorities conducting thousands of tests on other local residents and on Shipilova's body, there has never been an official explanation for her death, raising questions about whether Russia's authoritarian government is hiding something, and if so, what exactly is it hiding?
Shipilova's body did not test positive for any of the dangerous pathogens she was exposed to at the institute, including the bacterium that causes plague, according to Russia's public health watchdog, the Federal Service for Consumer Protection and Public Welfare Supervision. The watchdog said she died of pneumonia of unknown origin. Pneumonia can be caused by a variety of viruses, bacteria, and fungi.
The WHO is still trying to identify the "causative agent" of the deadly pneumonia case, including confirming whether it was caused by plague, Maria Van Kerkhove, director of epidemic and pandemic management at the World Health Organization, told a news conference on Wednesday.
"If plague has been ruled out - and they said it was - then what exactly did she die of?" Van Kerkhove asked.
Experts say they believe that, thanks to modern detection technology, Russian authorities should know the answer by now.
“It stands to reason that they have the ability to do simple genome sequencing in a matter of days,” said Raj Panjabi, a former White House public health official during the Biden administration. "It stands to reason that they have done the sequencing, but they haven't published the results, which is concerning."
These lingering questions reflect a widespread lack of trust among the global public, stemming in part from the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic that remain unanswered.
The COVID-19 epidemic has brought a huge impact to the world. More than six years later, people still have many unanswered questions, including: whether a laboratory engaged in bat coronavirus research in the Chinese city where the epidemic first broke out was related to the outbreak. China quickly denied the possibility and blocked an international investigation.
In Russia, any incident of a suspected pathogen leaking from a laboratory will attract great attention from the international community. That's partly because Russia is one of the few countries in the world still conducting biological weapons research, according to the U.S. intelligence community's annual threat assessment.
This has heightened concerns among U.S. officials and experts, who point to weaknesses in the country's ability to deal with such threats.
“There is no licensed vaccine for plague in the United States,” said Andrew Weber, a senior fellow at the Strategic Risk Council and a former Pentagon director on biodefense. "Given that Russia has an illegal biological weapons program, this is very concerning."
People who have received U.S. intelligence briefings say there is no indication that the Irkutsk institute is conducting biological weapons research. The people spoke on condition of anonymity to provide candid assessments.
Shipilova is involved in research targeting Y. pestis, testing which antibiotics and at what doses are effective against the bacterium that causes the plague, according to research abstracts presented this year at an infectious disease conference in Moscow.
Plague is endemic in Siberia and other parts of the world. The "Black Death" that ravaged Eurasia in the 14th century was caused by plague, but if detected early, it can be treated with antibiotics. Pneumonic plague is considered the most dangerous of the three main types of plague infection because it can spread from person to person and quickly cause fatal pneumonia.
Russian authorities referred to Shipilova as a "patient" and said she had been vaccinated against dangerous microorganisms she was exposed to in her work, and two investigations into the institute ruled out any "emergency" at the laboratory. They said the isolation measures in the Irkutsk region were taken as a precautionary measure out of caution, taking into account the nature of the patient's work.
Plague vaccines have long been available, but experts have long had serious doubts about their effectiveness and safety.
In addition to what pathogen caused Shipilova's pneumonia, many questions remain unanswered, including where she was in the days before her death and what she was doing at the institute, as well as when her illness first appeared, what manifestations it had, and how it progressed thereafter.
Laboratories around the world that study deadly pathogens take strict protective measures to prevent workers from getting infected, but accidents still happen.
Although Russia took quick action to isolate and test people who had come into contact with the researcher, the Russian Federal Service for Consumer Protection and Public Welfare Supervision did not hold any press conferences and only issued public statements from time to time. The Kremlin declined to answer specific questions, urging the public to listen only to information released by public health officials.
For other incidents that may affect public health, Russia has also been reluctant to disclose relevant details.
In 2019, Russia failed to salvage a nuclear-powered missile in the White Sea, causing an explosion that killed seven people. Moscow withheld key information about the incident. Russian authorities initially did not say that a nuclear device was involved, nor did they acknowledge that radiation levels had risen sharply, nor did they alert doctors that the patients they were treating were exposed to radiation.
Alexander Keller, a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg in Germany, said non-disclosure of information has long been a common practice among bureaucracies in the Soviet Union and even today in Russia. He warned people not to read too much into the limited details disclosed.
“Just because of the lack of information, we have to be careful not to assume there’s some ulterior motive behind it,” Keller said, noting that there are many valid public health reasons for researchers to study dangerous pathogens.
He said any inference of any link between the incident and Russian biological warfare research would be "far beyond what the extremely limited evidence currently supports."
Irkutsk Region Governor Igor Kobzev issued a video speech on Thursday in an attempt to bring closure to the incident. He said medical monitoring of those involved in the area has ended and thanked other Russian officials for acting quickly despite being closely watched.
Kobzev said that the WHO has publicly confirmed that there is no public health risk. However, the WHO said it had not yet received enough information from Russia to conduct a risk assessment.
