
AI-generated summary
The German economy is highly dependent on the Chinese market and has often played an obstructive role in the EU's formulation of China policies in the past. In recent years, China has dumped cheap products into Europe, and German automobile and other industries have faced an existential crisis, prompting policy changes. Beijing has long used a "carrot and stick" strategy to pressure or win over individual member states in order to weaken the EU's decision-making capabilities.
Since the German economy is highly dependent on the Chinese market, in the past, whenever the EU was preparing to formulate tough policies against China, Germany often acted as a "brake pad". However, as China aggressively dumps cheap products into Europe, Germany's automobile manufacturing and other industries are facing an existential crisis, and Germany's policy toward China has now changed.
"Süddeutsche Zeitung" recently published a comment entitled "Germany realizes its own problems" and pointed out, what are the fragile links of the EU? Beijing has always been very clear about this: the vulnerable link is not Brussels but the capitals of each member state. It is precisely because of this that in the past few years, Beijing's carrot and stick policies have always deliberately bypassed Brussels, and instead implemented a "divide and rule" policy of co-opting or putting pressure on individual member states.
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For example, in Hungary, Chinese companies have invested billions of euros in building factories, and the Budapest government under former Hungarian Prime Minister Orban will repeatedly obstruct the EU from issuing tough statements on China. In 2021, after a dispute with Lithuania over Taiwan's status, China immediately removed Lithuania from its customs system, and overnight, any Lithuanian products could no longer be exported to China.
Germany has also been repeatedly targeted by Beijing's "divide and rule" policy. In July this year, when Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche, he stated that China hopes that Germany will play an active role within the EU and push Brussels to adopt a "rational stance." This shows what role the Beijing authorities want Berlin to play.
Germany took this step for a reason. Over the past few decades, German companies, mainly in the automotive industry, have invested huge sums of money in China. Therefore, Germany is always worried that if it offends Beijing, its investment and business in China will be threatened.
Because of this, whenever the EU plans to introduce tough measures against China, Germany will always hit the brakes. From Germany's perspective, this seems reasonable, but the EU has to pay a high price for Germany's actions. Because as long as the Beijing authorities still believe that putting pressure on individual companies or member states is enough to tie the hands of Brussels, then the EU, with its huge economy, will still only be able to act as a political dwarf.
According to people familiar with the matter, Germany and France are promoting a new plan within the EU so that the EU can initiate severe countermeasures in a timely manner when it is subject to economic coercion. The plan would significantly reduce the influence of individual member states on decisions made in Brussels.
Commentators pointed out that this new measure taken by Germany cannot protect its own industry from China's retaliation. If Beijing retaliates against the EU's countermeasures under the new regulations, German companies will still bear the brunt. After all, the supply chain of German industry is closely intertwined with China, and Germany has huge economic interests in China. Some companies have begun hoarding rare earths to prepare for a possible conflict between Europe and China.
But in the long run, Germany's approach will effectively weaken Beijing's most powerful weapon: divide and rule the EU. This is exactly what the EU urgently needs.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The EU will launch severe countermeasures in case of economic coercion
Likely · Within months
German companies will continue to hoard strategic materials such as rare earths
Possible · Within months

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