The strategic interaction of the three major powers, the United States, China, and Russia, affects the global power map and the security of the Taiwan Strait. National Kaohsiung University invited Lian Hongyi, a professor at the Department of Diplomacy of National Chengchi University, to give a speech and pointed out that the competition between the United States and China will be an important axis affecting the international situation in the next 10 to 20 years. Russia's strategic role between the two powers deserves attention. He used the metaphor of "chess pieces and chess players" in the game of great powers. Taiwan should enhance its strength and strategic value so that other countries will not give up on Taiwan easily when exchanging interests.
Kaohsiung University's "Excellence Lecture" invited Lian Hongyi, professor of the Department of Diplomacy of National Chengchi University, to give a lecture on "Interaction and Competition among the Tripartite Relations between the United States, China and Russia under the Current International Situation." He analyzed the complex relationship of cooperation and checks and balances between major powers from aspects such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Trump administration's diplomatic layout, China-Russia strategic coordination, and competition between the United States and China.
He talked about U.S.-Russia relations and analyzed that there may be long-term strategic considerations behind Trump's attempts to promote ceasefires and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. He quoted U.S. President Richard Nixon's strategy of "alliance with China to contain the Soviet Union" during the Cold War to improve relations with China and check and balance the Soviet Union, and proposed the observation that Trump might try to "alliance with Russia to contain China": By improving U.S.-Russian relations, Russia's strategic dependence on China will be reduced, thereby changing the balance of power among the three parties. However, he emphasized that this is still a strategic possibility. The Russia-Ukraine war involves territory, security and political stances of all parties. A ceasefire does not represent a lasting peace. The adjustment of the US policy towards Russia also affects issues such as European allies and economic sanctions.
Lian Hongyi also described Russia-China relations as "politically hot and economically cold, hot at the top and cold at the bottom." Since the establishment of a strategic partnership in the 1990s, the two countries have gradually expanded political, security and military cooperation, with close high-level political interactions and relatively limited non-governmental economic and trade exchanges. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, international sanctions increased Russia's dependence on Chinese goods and markets. The two countries' joint military exercises and patrols in the Western Pacific and East Asia not only put security pressure on Japan, but also deserve Taiwan's attention to their impact on regional security. He used the past joint military exercises between the United States and Russia and China as a warning about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and reminded the outside world to observe the actual development of military cooperation.
As for U.S.-China relations, Lian Hongyi believes that the struggle between the two sides has extended from trade to technology, military and international systems. Trump has imposed pressure with tariffs, and China has taken countermeasures. Although the two countries are highly dependent on each other economically, it is still difficult to avoid structural competition. They must eventually return to negotiation and weighing interests. He also talked about nuclear weapons and strategic stability. Even if Russia consumes its national power due to war, it still maintains international influence with its nuclear weapons capabilities. The United States hopes that China will participate in broader discussions on nuclear arms control. However, the scale of nuclear weapons and strategic considerations between the United States, Russia and China are different, and trilateral negotiations are not easy.
