
AI-generated summary
The region is witnessing overlapping political crises in Lebanon and Iraqi Kurdistan, in addition to ongoing revelations of war crimes in Syria.
Contacts and political efforts are intensifying to return the ministers of the Lebanese Forces Party to participate in the Council of Ministers sessions, in an attempt to contain the repercussions of the boycott that came in protest against the failure to refer the file of the explosives shipment linked to Hezbollah to the Judicial Council, and before that, the Minister of Energy retreated against the backdrop of the government’s failure to respond to the solutions he proposed to address the electricity crisis. Among the security, political and service files, the government appears to be facing the test of restoring the regularity of its work, amid positive indicators accompanied by serious attempts to calm the atmosphere and open the way for the return of ministers.
In this context, the Minister of Agriculture, Nizar Hani, confirmed that “the government atmosphere is moving towards positivity,” expressing his hope that “the Cabinet session scheduled for Thursday will witness the attendance of all ministers in light of the progress made in addressing the electricity file.”
Hani indicated, in a radio interview, that “basic progress has been achieved at the level of financing the Electricité du Liban Corporation, especially through the official departments’ payment of their due dues,” pointing out that “the Ministry of Finance plays a fundamental role in this field.” He stressed that “it is the duty of all public institutions to pay their dues, just as citizens do,” considering that “developing the service and increasing feeding hours requires securing the necessary financial resources for the institution.”
This comes at a time when a serious Qatari offer to secure electricity for Lebanon is being discussed, with the Council of Ministers setting a date for a new session devoted exclusively to discussing the electricity file and deciding on its various details.
The Minister of Energy, who visited Qatar last week to research the file, announced that he was withdrawing from attending the sessions due to “the government’s failure to assume its responsibilities towards the energy sector and its failure to deal seriously with the proposals submitted to ensure the continuity of electricity.”
However, on the other hand, the complex related to the explosives shipment file still constitutes a fundamental point of contention, which was acknowledged by Hani, noting that “the issue of referring the explosives file to the Judicial Council remains a subject of discussion in the Council of Ministers, and that making a decision regarding it is linked to the course of the investigation and judicial data,” stressing “the necessity of waiting for what the next stage will reveal.”
Strict attitude to explosives
The atmosphere of the “Forces” is not different from what Minister Hani talked about, waiting for what the government’s agenda will hold to announce the final decision regarding their participation or not.
While awaiting the Prime Minister’s invitation to the session this week, MP Fadi Karam, a member of the “Forces” bloc, spoke about “the existence of attempts at remediation in preparation for the ministers’ return to attending the Council of Ministers sessions,” explaining that “the Forces ministers are presenting radical reform files and partial political solutions, while another party sees the necessity of giving some files more time to be addressed pending the crystallization of certain regional and international conditions, which constitutes a gain for the state at the expense of the state.”
Karam stressed that “our position is strict on the issue of explosives,” stressing: “We do not view the issue as a mere shipment of explosives, but rather as a violation of the decisions of the Council of Ministers related to ending the military action of (Hezbollah). The issue is not limited to violating the resolution, but rather reflects an insistence on the continuation of Hezbollah’s military activity and keeping Lebanon as a platform for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and therefore we attach great importance to this issue.”
As for the energy file, Karam presented the issue from the perspective of reform, asking: “Either we move towards reform, otherwise what is the alternative that we are looking for?”
Waiting for serious steps
In parallel, Lebanese Forces sources confirm that “everyone knows that we have two demands, the energy file and the Judicial Council file related to the explosives shipment.” The sources do not deny that “the indicators are positive, and there are serious attempts to resolve the issue and return the forces ministers to the government.”
The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that “there is communication with everyone, led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam,” stressing that “(the forces) are positive in all proposals,” and that “there are serious attempts to participate with the ministers again, and we are open and positive.”
While it has become certain that the government will not refer the explosives file at the present time to the Judicial Council, with the Presidents of the Republic and the government insisting that the investigations take their course and work on implementing governmental and judicial decisions, the sources say: “We are still waiting for the call to the government session expected on Thursday and the determination of the government’s agenda, and therefore what is required is to know how the two files will be approached, and we want serious steps, and then the matter will be built on what it requires,” stressing, “Our goal is to eat the grapes, not to kill the waiter.”
On Monday, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Masoud Barzani, invited the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party, led by Bafel Talabani, to sit at a dialogue table in order to address the problems and put an end to the political crisis in the region.
Barzani's call came five days after the first session of the regional parliament was held, which was boycotted by the National Union Party, and deepened the state of division in the region that has been going on for years, especially between the two main parties, the Democratic Party and the Union Party.
Barzani said in his call, “In light of the current political developments and conditions, all parties must keep in mind that the interest of the people of Kurdistan is greater and transcends any other interest or goal.”
Barzani added, “Based on this principle, I call on the brothers in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to sit at the dialogue table with the Kurdistan Democratic Party in order to address the problems and put an end to the political crisis in the Kurdistan region.”
He stressed “the sincere desire for other political parties in the region to also participate in the course of the political process, and to work together to form an expanded and national government that meets the demands and aspirations of the people of Kurdistan.”
Power equation
Last Wednesday, the Kurdistan Regional Parliament held its first session after a two-year suspension as a result of disputes between the “Democratic” and “Union” parties. It succeeded in electing a speaker of Parliament alongside his deputy and the Parliament’s secretary. The three elected members worked within the space of belonging and loyalty to the “Democratic Party,” which sparked intense anger within the circles of the “Union” Party.
Although the “Democratic Party” obtained 39 out of 100 total seats in Parliament, compared to the “Union” obtaining 23 seats, the equation of ruling power in Kurdistan has always taken into account the areas of influence enjoyed by the two parties, and in many cases is not based on the size of parliamentary representation, as the “Democratic Party” dominates the governorates of Erbil and Dohuk, while the “National Union” enjoys broad influence in the governorates of Sulaymaniyah and Halabja, and large parts of the region, and subject it to its control.
Youssef Goran, a member of the political bureau of the Union Party, says: “The Kurdistan region is not just a few parliamentary seats that can be collected mathematically, but rather it is a political experience founded on the principle of balance and complex partnership. Any attempt to manage its institutions away from the understanding between the two main powers opens the door to a crisis much deeper than what the planners of this session envisioned.”
“Angry” actions
Although the “Union” Party obtained many positions in the federal government in Baghdad, especially the position of the Presidency of the Republic, in addition to ministerial and senior positions in the Kurdistan region, it saw the move of the “Democratic Party” and holding a first session of parliament as “a context contrary to the agreements between the two parties, which focused on resolving all issues related to the distribution of positions before holding the parliament session,” according to a leader in the “Union” Party.
The Union Party took a set of “angry” measures after the parliament session was held, including “not recognizing the legitimacy of the session,” describing it as “a coup against legitimacy and a unilateral step.”
He also threatened to withdraw from the regional government, and withdrew his representatives from the regional presidency and other joint institutions.
He threatened to divide the region and go to the option of self-administration, whereby he would manage the areas under his influence (Sulaymaniyah Governorate and its surrounding areas) completely independently.
He also decided to resort to the federal judiciary and file an official complaint before the Federal Supreme Court in Baghdad, to challenge the legality and legitimacy of the parliamentary session.
Despite Masoud Barzani's new call for the National Union Party, observers doubt the possibility of reaching a satisfactory formula for understanding in the near term, based on a long history of disagreements and conflict between the two main parties.
Barzani in Baghdad
On the other hand, the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, arrived on Monday in the capital, Baghdad, at the head of a high-ranking government delegation, to hold discussions with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and leaders of political forces regarding the region’s share in the federal budget for the year 2027, according to a statement issued by the regional government. The statement added, "The discussions center on the file of the Kurdistan region's share in the federal general budget for the year 2027, in a way that guarantees the rights, constitutional and financial entitlements of the region." Government spokesman, Bishwa Hawramani, told the Iraqi News Agency, “The visit aims to discuss the financial budget file, and discuss ways to solve the outstanding problems and files between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government.” He added, "The discussions will focus on addressing controversial issues in accordance with the constitution, political agreements and understandings, which will contribute to reaching joint solutions between Baghdad and Erbil."
Flood and rain losses
In the midst of partisan disputes, the torrential rains and torrential rains that fell on the Kurdistan region during the last two days, especially Erbil Governorate, caused massive losses of life and property.
While Masoud Barzani offered condolences to two Kurdish citizens whose relatives died as a result of the floods, the governor of Erbil, Omid Khoshnaw, announced the formation of a joint committee to assess the damage resulting from the floods that swept the provincial capital, and called on the federal government in Baghdad to assume its responsibilities in compensating those affected.
Erbil Governor, Omid Khoshnaw, said on Sunday in a press conference, “The Crisis Management Team - in coordination between the Ministries of Municipality, Interior, Relief, and Erbil Governorate - formed a specialized committee to assess the extent of the damage resulting from the torrents and floods that struck Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region.”
He added, “One area of Erbil recorded more than 45 mm of rain in just one hour, while the amount of rain in other areas reached about 120 mm,” noting that “the floods resulted in very large material damage that affected citizens’ property in a large number of neighborhoods belonging to three municipal directorates in Erbil.”
Khoshnaw continued, “The incident also caused the death of two people, including a 5-year-old child, a 28-year-old young man, and another person, and that since last night the rescue teams have been able to save more than 300 trapped people, whether those who were stuck inside their cars, or those who were trapped inside their homes, and were evacuated using mechanisms and cranes.”
On Monday, residents of the “Tadamon” neighborhood, south of the Syrian capital, Damascus, discovered a mass grave in the Al-Shuhada (Al-Sulaikha) area, bringing the number of graves discovered in the same neighborhood to eight graves, the day after the Ministry of Justice referred Amjad Youssef, nicknamed the “Butcher of Solidarity,” to the investigating judge in preparation for his trial.
The remains of more than five victims were found in the new mass grave, while the Damascus Solidarity Neighborhood Coordination Department said that search work is continuing through the efforts of the Civil Defense teams and the National Authority for Missing Persons. This is the eighth cemetery of its kind in the same location.
The “Tadamon Neighborhood Coordination” works to document the sites suspected of containing mass graves inside the neighborhood, through photographic materials and field testimonies. The “Coordination Committee” broadcast a video clip of the testimony of one of the families, in which he said that children had found human bones at the site, while another called on the concerned authorities to conduct a survey of the entire area, collect the remains, and preserve them in an appropriate manner, reserving for the families of the missing the right to access evidence that reveals the fate of their children. He said: “Every time a person wants to establish a house, he finds human bones.”
The Counter-Terrorism Department of the Ministry of Interior referred the case file of the main accused in the Solidarity massacres, Amjad Youssef, to the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic in preparation for referring him to the investigating judge, and initiating a public right lawsuit against him and his accomplices based on the evidence and investigations referred, to follow up on the procedures, according to a statement by the Ministry of Justice, which confirmed upon receiving the file “its steadfast pursuit of accountability and the prevention of impunity, to provide justice to the victims of crimes committed against the Syrian people in accordance with legal requirements and transitional justice.”
This coincided with the end of the preliminary investigations into Amjad Youssef, the main accused of committing these massacres that occurred in 2013, as the Syrian Ministry of Justice announced that the case file would be referred to the Public Prosecutor in preparation for his trial within the process of transitional justice in Syria.
In April 2026, the Internal Security Forces arrested Amjad Youssef (an assistant in Branch 227 of Military Intelligence in the previous regime) following a security operation in the Hama countryside. A number of members of his security group and those close to him were also arrested as part of the investigations.
The Ministry of Interior broadcast video confessions of him in which he admitted to killing dozens of civilians in cold blood and burning their bodies in a pit in the Tadamon neighborhood in 2013 without receiving direct orders.
Conflicting numbers
There are conflicting numbers about the number of victims of the Solidarity massacres, and there are estimates that speak of 280 people, while the testimonies of neighborhood residents indicate more than a few thousand victims, in light of the number of missing people in the neighborhood, and the presence of many pits and sites in the neighborhood containing the remains of victims of the 2013 massacres, which occurred in the middle of a residential square under construction.
The case of Amjad Youssef, nicknamed the “Butcher of Solidarity,” is one of the most prominent cases that were raised during the past year within the process of transitional justice in Syria, as it is one of the most heinous crimes documented in audio and video via video clips filmed by the perpetrators of the crime as a means of showing off and “heroic” bragging.
The issue of the “Solidarity Massacres” is related to the file revealing the fate of thousands of missing and forcibly disappeared people in Damascus during the first years of the outbreak of the revolution against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, including the children of Dr. Rania Al-Abbasi and her husband, Dr. Abdul Rahman, who have been missing since 2013.
According to the Ministry of Interior, investigations with detainees in the Amjad Youssef case revealed evidence and data indicating his involvement in the liquidation of the six children, and the National Authority for Missing Persons in Syria announced, in May 2026, that it had reached reliable results with a high degree of professional certainty confirming their killing, while the fate of their parents remained unknown.
The National Authority for Missing Persons in Syria also announced in August 2026 that it had revealed the fate of Bassam Bahra and his son Samih Bahra, 13 years after they disappeared in Damascus, and said that they were killed by a group led by Amjad Youssef and his partner Kamel Abbas in the Tadamon neighborhood in Damascus.
The Guardian newspaper revealed, in an investigation published on April 27, 2022, information about a massacre committed by the forces of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on the 16th of the same month, 2013, in the “Tadamon neighborhood,” which resulted in the killing of about 41 people, and their burial in a mass grave.
The investigation included a video clip of a non-commissioned officer named Amjad Youssef in the “Region Branch” - who was affiliated with the Military Intelligence Division - as he and others pushed dozens of people in civilian clothes, of different ages, blindfolded, into a large, deep pit, then shot them after they fell into it, and then burned their bodies.
Media reports indicate that there are 27 video clips documenting the Tadamon massacre in Britain, and what was published is one clip, according to what the “General Coordinator of the Syrian Revolution” Abdel Moneim Zein al-Din said earlier, demanding to obtain the remainder of those clips.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
A session of the Lebanese Council of Ministers was held on Thursday
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