Even those who never fill their car's tank with diesel feel the effects of rising prices, as gasoline is primarily a fuel for motorists. Diesel is what keeps the economy going and powers trucks, agricultural machinery, construction vehicles, and industrial facilities.
Therefore, the impact of diesel shortages on the economy is often more severe than the impact of high gasoline prices. Transportation costs rise. The cost of operating machines increases. Companies pass these costs on to consumers. The result: more inflation and more pressure on the cost of living. But what is driving prices up globally?
The United States and China are the world's largest diesel producers. China consumes most of its diesel production domestically. The United States is the largest exporter. But also there the price of diesel rises. The weekly average is currently 6.52 US dollars (5.73 euros) per gallon (3.8 liters). According to the US Energy Information Agency, a year ago the price was 3.74 dollars, and two years ago it was 3.53 dollars.
US President Donald Trump holds Ukraine partly responsible for this. He recently called on it to stop attacking Russian refineries “because that will cause a shortage of diesel fuel.”
Russia, along with the United States, is one of the world's largest diesel suppliers. According to the International Energy Agency, Russian refineries have been subjected to 15 attacks since 2022.
As a result, Russia's diesel production fell by about 30 percent from its level in 2025. Moscow responded by imposing export restrictions to ensure its internal supplies.
The United States tried to fill this gap, but it was not enough. On September 22, Trump announced that he was considering imposing a ban on American exports as well.
The background is political: before the congressional elections in November, the United States wants to reduce prices within the country. Energy prices have long been an election campaign topic. The major energy sector lobby groups strongly object to these plans. Many experts warn that halting exports will not pay off quickly. Worse still, it may prompt US refiners to cut production, which could cause prices to rise further.
Last week, Trump reiterated that his country would not impose a ban on diesel exports, praising the decision of European countries to pump quantities of their reserves.
He added, "I asked for this. Europe has large quantities of diesel and thus they make a major global contribution... and so do we." He added, "We will not impose an export ban, but rather we will do what we have to do."
For their part, the G7 countries agreed last Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their stocks over a period of four months with the aim of alleviating concerns related to global energy supplies that were exacerbated by the Iran war.
The G7 decision to release oil and diesel reserves “could mitigate the impact for a while, but the basic problem still exists,” Samina Sultan of the German Economic Institute told German News Agency (dpa).
Sultan stressed that returning energy prices to normal permanently will require reopening the Strait of Hormuz. She added, "If at the same time we witness further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz... and nothing can be crossed, the reserves will be just a drop in the ocean."
For Europe, the consequences of halting US diesel exports would be tragic, if that happened. “Decades of tax benefits have made the European vehicle fleet more dependent on diesel than, for example, the United States,” says Georg Zachmann, an energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.
“So the EU has a surplus of gasoline that it exports,” Zachman explains. “As for diesel, the situation is the opposite: the EU has to import it.”
The numbers confirm this: in the European Union, diesel cars constitute more than 38 percent of the total private cars. Road transport, including freight transport, accounts for 77 percent of total diesel and gas oil consumption. This is what the analyzes of the Brussels-based Transport & Environment organization show.
This heavy reliance on diesel “makes drivers and businesses particularly vulnerable to price shocks,” writes study author Juliette Eggal.
The numbers are clear: compared to the period before February 28, 2026 when Israel and the United States started the war with Iran, EU drivers today pay on average 30 euros more to fill a 50-litre tank. The cost of an average truck in Germany increases by 236 euros per week.
In total, this rise costs the European Union economy 270 million euros per day. Of this amount, €203 million is due to diesel fuel alone. Since the start of the war, the additional costs resulting from diesel fuel used on roads have reached 40 billion euros.
Skip York, an energy expert at Rice University in Houston, Texas, says a critical factor in the short term is processing crude oil in Russia. “Every new attack wave launched by Ukraine is reflected in the price of diesel within a few days. As for the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is different, “where supplies have been reduced but have remained relatively stable for months.”
Crude oil production, which is the basis for gasoline and diesel production, is no longer the biggest problem at the moment. “The choke point has changed,” York explains. “In March and April there was a shortage of crude oil. Since August, the shortage has been in refining capacity.”
The reason: Both Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia and the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz are destroying refining capabilities faster than they can be replaced. But in the long term, the Strait of Hormuz remains the “biggest structural risk” to diesel prices, according to York.
Zackman from the Bruegel Research Center in Brussels also confirms that refining capacity worldwide “has decreased significantly, and diesel has been particularly affected.”
A long war in the Middle East or in Russia would worsen the situation for Europe and other diesel users. Halting US exports may exacerbate the problem further.
Zackman warns that if the United States does stop exports, it will come as a shock. Diesel prices will continue to rise.
Until now the transatlantic fuel trade has gone like this: the United States sells diesel to Europe while the Europeans sell gasoline to the United States. If the Europeans responded to a borrower stopping the export of diesel from the United States by reducing their gasoline exports there, gasoline prices would rise in the United States, while diesel prices would rise in Europe. Both sides will lose.
Moreover, winter is approaching. The refineries would then have to supply both heating oil and diesel at the same time. This further exacerbates the shortage.
There is another factor: since 2019 many refineries in Europe and the United States have closed. This has made the diesel market more fragile, says York of Rice University in Houston, Texas. The reserve capacity that was previously capable of absorbing shocks has decreased.
“The market no longer has any margin of safety,” York concludes. “Every liter lost today impacts supplies much more directly than it did previously.”
