
AI-generated summary
Australia is experiencing an early onset of summer-like conditions in September, driven by a strengthening El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific, which is forecast to persist until early 2027 and is already breaking heat records.
Summer heat is due to arrive early across much of eastern Australia with potentially record early September temperatures predicted for Brisbane and Sydney, while snow was expected in southern New South Wales.
Maximum temperatures in Sydney during the first days of September were on track to match the city’s midsummer average of 26.4C, warmer than any other start to spring since the city’s Observatory Hill station opened in 1858.
Suburbs across Sydney were expected to reach up to 33C on Saturday afternoon, smashing average September records by up to 13C.
The meteorologist Tom Saunders said a gusty north-westerly airstream blowing south from the northern interior would lift maximums this weekend by as much as 13C above the average.
The highest anomalies were set to affect the NSW coast.
“For Sydney, it’s likely to be the hottest day this early in spring on record and for the first five days of September we’re on track to average a top of 27 degrees that matches the midsummer average,” he told ABC News.
“Temperatures this spring will average as much as three degrees above the baseline from recent decades, potentially the hottest spring on record.”
The warm, dry and windy conditions would cause fire dangers to spike. A total fire ban was in place for the greater Sydney region, where extreme fire danger was forecast.
The dramatic – and potentially dangerous – start to Australia’s spring extended across much of the continent, with damaging winds that could bring down trees and roofs in South Australia, and minor to moderate flooding for parts of Victoria and Tasmania.
Meanwhile, in southern NSW, live cameras appeared to show snow falling late on Saturday morning in Thredbo in the Snowy Mountains.
The Bureau of Meteorology had forecast snowfall to hit Thredbo top station by 4pm on Saturday, with a daytime low temperature of -1C.
The new falls won’t do much to help the parlous cover remaining on Australia’s ski fields after a warm winter, however.
The Weatherzone journalist Anthony Sharwood on Friday wrote: “September snowfalls are meaningful when there’s a decent remnant snowpack from winter onto which the new snow can bond. But … the Australian snowpack is at a historic low for the first week of September, even at the highest elevations of the mountains.”
Across the border, southern Queensland would see temperatures peak in the mid-30s in another unseasonably warm start to September.
In South Australia’s Mount Lofty and Flinders ranges, wind gusts of up to 110km/h were possible late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Heavy rains were forecast for north-east Victoria and northern Tasmania, with up to 60mm expected in some parts.
“The catchments in those areas are really wet,” the BoM meteorologist David Crock said on Friday. “They’ve seen multiple rounds of flood warnings this winter already.
“So we’ve got a flood watch current again for these catchments across northern Victoria … and across parts of northern Tasmania as well.”
The dramatic start to spring comes against the background of a “supersized” El Niño weather phenomenon to Australia’s east, one that is already breaking heat records, and could comfortably surpass previous events.
On Thursday, the UN’s weather agency said the event in the Pacific was continuing to strengthen and would probably persist until early 2027, warning it had the “potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world”.
El Niño events tend to mean hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s south and east in winter and spring, and can increase the risk of heatwaves, drought and bushfires.
Australia’s national council for fire and emergency services said fire authorities were predicting a heightened risk of fire across northern and south-eastern NSW, south-east Queensland, north-eastern Tasmania, parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria, and large parts of the Northern Territory.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
El Niño event will likely persist until early 2027
Very likely · Within months
This spring could be the hottest on record for Australia
Likely · Within months
Heightened fire risk across northern and south-eastern NSW, south-east Queensland, and other regions
Likely · Within weeks
A strong cold front brought snow to parts of New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania just weeks before summer, with Thredbo recording -5.0C and Sydney dropping from 29.7C to 14C in one day.
Queensland's southern regions may experience severe storms through the long weekend while the north sees improved boating conditions as winds ease on the King's Birthday public holiday, according to Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy, who noted October marks the start of the higher risk weather season.
A weather system brought significant rainfall to Western Australia after a dry winter, with Goldfields recording four times normal September rainfall. While some crops benefited, others like oats were lodged, and farmers reported damage, and northern farmers received insufficient rain, highlighting uneven distribution.

Australians in the nation's south-east are expected to experience the warmest September day in years, with temperatures rising 6C to 12C above average over the weekend. Coastal areas will reach the high 20s while inland regions extend into the low to mid 30s due to a cold front in Western Australia and a high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea dragging warm, dry, sunny weather. Canberra and Melbourne are forecast to record their highest September temperatures since 2023, with Sydney reaching 28C and Hobart its hottest September day in seven years. Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Dean Narramore warned of further fluctuations, including cooler conditions early next week followed by an even bigger heat burst later in the week. He noted these spring temperature swings are common, citing Hobart's forecast of 27C on Sunday dropping to 14C on Monday as an example of the 'spring rollercoaster'. The upcoming warm weather is expected to be hotter and more prolonged than this weekend, with most of south-eastern Australia running 8C to 15C above September averages from Thursday onward. The BoM's spring outlook is warm and dry, with a strong El Niño developing in the Pacific forecast to peak in late spring or summer and reach levels above the warmest observed since 1950. El Niño increases the chances of warmer, drier weather and fire danger in summer, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, raising risks of heatwaves, drought and bushfires. Globally, 2027 is expected to be the hottest year ever due to El Niño. Fire danger is currently high in some parts of the country but not extreme.
Following a polar blast that brought freezing temperatures and snow to south-east Australia, a rapid warming surge driven by hot air from Western Australia's 'heat engine' is set to push temperatures up to 12C above average this weekend, with multiple capitals forecast to record their warmest September days in years before another cold front flushes the heat away within 24 hours.
Queensland experienced above-average temperatures and sunny skies over the weekend, but emergency services continue battling fires, including a deliberately lit blaze near Gladstone. Meteorologists warn of possible smoke impacts from high-pressure ridging and heavy morning fog, while the Rural Fire Service cites high-risk conditions due to warm temperatures and strong winds. Showers are expected along the east coast from Tuesday, increasing to up to 20mm on the north Tropical Coast by Thursday to Saturday.